Quick Update: The Top Ten Stocks I Own

For those who don’t care about MoviePass and HMNY, please accept my apologies for the content of the past few weeks. In this business, when you’re given data to analyze, you should analyze it. With MoviePass, the data (as conflicting as it has been) has been coming in fast and furious of late. I can see that starting to cool off. Fingers crossed.

Luckily, I have no job to speak of. Aside from my volunteer coaching (a few hours per day; five days a week), I can do whatever I want with my time. When there’s interesting stock analysis to perform, I do perform it. When there isn’t, I read comic books or sit on the beach (or both). You get the picture.

Without writing a long analysis, here’s how my portfolio looks right now…

dollars

As usual (dating back to the mid-90s), I’m heavily concentrated in lesser-known names that I hope will become better-known names in time. However, I also have a growing basket of well-known names.

Among the lesser-known names, my top holdings (in alphabetical order) are AEHR, CALM, GAIA, RDCM, and SMSI. Of those, I think SMSI has the best risk/reward. I think GAIA might have the best management, though CALM’s is very good and seasoned. RDCM is arguably in the best competitive position to attack a growing trend.

AEHR is my largest overall position at the moment (due to a combination of factors). SMSI is a close #2 and likely to become #1 after they announce earnings this week.

Among the better-known names, my top holdings (in alphabetical order) include AAPL, AMC, DIS, FB, and WDAY. Of those, I’m most likely to sell (or write calls against) AAPL due to its great one-month run. I’ve already written calls against WDAY, but see them as having the most long-term potential. Would love a chance to buy at $100.

DIS and AMC are coming off of depressed levels and have a great slate of movies to drive them through July. Plus, “the MoviePass effect” may provide a bit of a tailwind. Beyond that, it will be wait-n-see on AMC, but I think DIS still has a bright future ahead.

As for FB, they have the best data on the most people and Instagram just keeps getting better and better. The stock isn’t “cheap”, but I see $200 in their future.

 

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Disclosures / Disclaimers: I am long all of the stocks listed in this post. However, this is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact these stock or their derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.

I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter.  Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.

The sole purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

20 thoughts on “Quick Update: The Top Ten Stocks I Own

    1. Nevermind. Dumb Question :). I know you aren’t short term focused and you are probably playing it safe to see mgmt follow through on your phone conversation. That’s my take anyway.

      Liked by 1 person

    2. No. But I already have a big position. IDK what the earnings will be (and don’t care, because they have nothing to do with what’s coming over the next few quarters), but I do know that it will bring increased clarity on how Sprint is going and how they feel about the rest of the year. I am always willing to invest more when I have greater clarity. Big position becomes bigger position. If I have to pay 10% more for that extra clarity, so be it. I’ll be up 10% on my large position and pay up for the clarity.

      Liked by 1 person

  1. Mark, considering that there are no earnings from the Sprint deal for last quarter and not sure if they have started rolling out the product, do you really think this stock could rally at this time with their forward looking statements but still big overhang of warrant/stock conversion issue.

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    1. That’s the million dollar question. What will happen remains to be seen, but I’m in pretty big, so you know what I think.

      Big position, but with room to make it bigger.

      As for the warrant overhang, it has had it’s standard 15% haircut from the deal price. Until they raise more $$$ (unlikely), that drag on the stock should be behind us.

      Cheers.

      Like

  2. Mark, GAIA is really getting a push at relatively low volume. The buyer doesn’t seem to mind driving up the price. Almost seems like the stock is getting bought out as this has been a consistent move with no pullback. Today it is up about $.85 on 40K shares to almost $16. I thought it could eventually reach $20 but not until the end of the year.
    I want to buy in but this is crazy……
    Any ideas as to what is happening?

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  3. Mark – how do you subscribe to the full blog to get all postings via email? I can’t seem to find the link anywhere on the site…perhaps I’m missing it?…. Thanks.

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    1. If you’re having trouble signing up, just shoot us your email address via the “Contact” button.

      BTW, I highly recommend downloading the WordPress app. I think it’s great!

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    1. Three things: 1) they are still in an early phase, where customers are evaluating their new systems. The result of those evaluations will determine if the stock should go to $1 or $10… 2) Their order flow is lumpy and has been on the lower side over the last couple of months; this is not a concern for me, because Dec-Feb is always their slowest season for orders… 3) insiders have been selling drip by drip by drip. It doesn’t add up to much, but it annoys people. I actually did a complete analysis of the selling, who is selling, and why. I concluded that there’s nothing suspicious about it at all. Just a bunch of 10b5-1s for a bunch of guys who have never made big money in their lives and want to make sure they have decent asset diversification. Smart if you ask me.

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      1. Thanks. I looked into the insider selling prior and it did not concern me. It was a very small percentage of their holdings. Only thing that concerns me is SMSI & AEHR seem pretty illiquid. Avg daily volume is pretty low. I would imagine it not being easy to get out with a sizable position.

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  4. Great questions you asked on the SMSI earnings call Mark. What are your thoughts after the call. I left the call feeling pretty confident of the risk/reward at current levels.

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  5. Hi Mark,

    AMC had a worst drop than Cinemark CNK even though they both had the crappy 2017 movie slate. Any opinion on why this is the case? Some articles attribute it to AMC’s high debt. Being that you’re a “numbers” person, I would really appreciate your input.

    Like

    1. It is because of the high debt. High net debt yields a high enterprise value relative to market cap. As a result, any change in enterprise value has a pronounced effect on market cap.

      Test when I just said by doing some math on Cinemark versus AMC, using the assumption that each one loses 10% of its enterprise value. See what happens to the market cap of each.

      Like

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