MAJOR UPDATE: MoviePass Hits 2.5M Subs, But 2018 Cash Burn Estimate Worsens To $700M

Long-time readers should note some significant changes in how I communicate in the public domain. The primary purpose of this forum is now to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

Accordingly, this document should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation of the companies or securities discussed herein. I am not an investment advisor and this is not an investment thesis. It is merely one part of the story, which I present for debate in hopes of determining all risks and upside potential. The disclosure at the end of this piece is critical to understanding the content of this document. Further, I frequently trade my positions and may buy, sell, or short the securities mentioned herein at any time, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I’m still trying to fully research & wrap my arms around MoviePass’ (HMNY) acquisition of Moviefone. While I do, several big things have surfaced:

1. Ted Farnsworth was on Fox News this morning (hat tip to one of our contributing readers #collaboration), He stated that they now have over 2.5 million subscribers and are buying 7%-8% of all movie tickets.

Of course, 7-8% represents progress toward gaining real influence over theaters. That could be good news for the company in the long-term. However, the data shows that this is bearish news for traders and common shareholders.

Specifically, I’ve updated my cash burn model to reflect Ted’s new disclosures (and the latest box office data). The good news is that box office receipts were lower than expected in March.

The bad news is that MoviePass’ ravenous customers don’t appear to care — they simply don’t take months off. While the movie revenue fell 33% in March versus February, MoviePass visits only fell by 21%.

Entering April, BoxOfficeMojo is expressing optimism regarding this month’s slate of movies, including Ready Player One, which got off to an impressive start last week. That’s not a good sign heading into the summer gauntlet.

As a result of all this, my 2018 utilization forecast has been increased.

I now expect that MoviePass will need every bit of the $100 million that HMNY raised (in mid-Feb) by the end of May. Worse yet, as I’ve previously warned, I expect the summer blockbuster gauntlet, to cause losses exceeding $180 million in June/July.

This means that MoviePass will need two more $100 million rounds of funding before July… and one more before the end of August.

As if things couldn’t get worse, the stock is acting even more poorly than my dilution model (see below — it clearly need to be updated) has projected. I expected the next round of funding to occur at $3.15 (with the stock trading at $4.50 beforehand).

As it stands right now, it doesn’t appear that the stock will reach $4.50 before then. With another round looming, short sellers are incentivized to short tens of millions of shares for the next two months. They can cover those shorts simply by participating in the next round of funding (presumably near the same 35% discount as the last two rounds).

Even at a 6% month cost to borrow (100% annualized), the 35% funding discount will more than compensate for the two-month of borrowing cost.

Of course, then the whole process will immediately start over in anticipation of the June and July rounds of funding. For those rounds, short sellers will only have to pay for one-month of borrowing.

Here’s how my original dilution model looked:

Next Round Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5
Pre-Deal Stock Price  $            4.50  $      2.68  $      1.59  $      0.95  $      0.56
Deal Price (w/warrants)  $            3.15  $      1.87  $      1.12  $      0.66  $      0.39
Money Raised ($M)  $             100  $       100  $       100  $       100  $       100
Shares Issued (M)                31.7          53.4          89.7        150.7        253.3
Post Deal Stock Price  $            2.68  $      1.59  $      0.95  $      0.56  $      0.34
Cumulative $ Raised  $             100  $       200  $       300  $       400  $       500
Cumulative Shares Issued                31.7          53.4          89.7        150.7        253.3
Total Shares Outstanding              121.7        143.4        179.7        240.7        343.3
Fully Diluted              163.5        206.7        279.3        401.4        606.6
Market Cap  $        735.71  $  553.46  $  445.03  $  380.50  $  342.11

…and here’s how it looks now:

Next Round Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5
Pre-Deal Stock Price  $            3.00  $      1.79  $      1.06  $      0.63  $      0.38
Deal Price (w/warrants)  $            2.10  $      1.25  $      0.74  $      0.44  $      0.26
Money Raised ($M)  $             100  $       100  $       100  $       100  $       100
Shares Issued (M)                47.6          80.0        134.5        226.1        379.9
Post Deal Stock Price  $            1.79  $      1.06  $      0.63  $      0.38  $      0.22
Cumulative $ Raised  $             100  $       200  $       300  $       400  $       500
Cumulative Shares Issued                47.6          80.0        134.5        226.1        379.9
Total Shares Outstanding              137.6        170.0        224.5        316.1        469.9
Fully Diluted              195.2        260.1        369.0        552.1        859.9
Market Cap  $        585.71  $  464.21  $  391.92  $  348.91  $  323.31

I remain hopefulthat the company will gain enough critical mass to achieve profitability in a couple of years, However, even if it does, current common shareholders are not positioned to benefit. Quite the contrary, in fact.

Needless to say, I remain bearish on the stock.

2. Evidence suggests that the reinstatement of AMC’s 10 highly-trafficked movie theaters did not come with any substantial concessions from AMC. AMC’s stance toward MoviePass remains dismissive and agitated that MoviePass execs are using the AMC name to attract PR.

Personally, I’m all for MoviePass using AMC’s name for PR. It’s part of why I credit Ted Farnsworth’s marketing prowess. Nonetheless, the notion that AMC didn’t cave in (at least not substantially) is a letdown for shareholders. The stock has already begun reflecting this by fading the initial move.


3. The Moviefone deal was mostly for stock and warrants. I think that was a smart move for them (especially since they locked Verizon up for 12-months). However, it doesn’t say much for HMNY feels about their valuation.

Let’s put it this way (to the bulls)… if you were Ted, would you be giving up any shares of stock at this valuation? Of course, the comeback to this is, “if they paid 100% with cash, they’d just be issuing more shares sooner.” and that’s a good comeback… but then, why not hold off a little longer on the Moviefone deal until your stock is worth more… unless you don’t expect it to become worth more. #moredilution.

4. In the Wall Street Journal yesterday… “Mr. Farnsworth said only 12% of MoviePass subscribers are “heavy users” and that it would be profitable excluding that segment. But since those heavy users are unlikely to leave. MoviePass seeks to make money other ways, including selling advertisements to studios that want to reach its user base.”

Depending on the definition of “heavy users” versus the industry’s definition of “frequent movie goers”, this is more bearish news. Frequent movie goers represent about 15% of the movie going population. Yet, MoviePass only considers 12% of its customers to be “heavy users”. This implies that we should not expect the ratio of heavy vs. casual users to improve anytime soon (posing a continuation of the cash-burning, dilution-causing MoviePass utilization rate).

Investors should keep a close eye on utilization and churn, assuming we’re blessed with any/further insight on either. My working hypothesis is that heavy users will renew their subscription (a no-brainer for them) at a much higher rate than casual users (whose decision won’t be as intuitive… especially if their usage moderates as MoviePass execs expect).

If my hypotheses plays out, we will see a greater proportion of new customers and renewing customers to be “heavy users”. That will increase the overall percentage of heavy users, offsetting any moderation in casual-customer utilization.

So far, the persistently high utilization (as updated by Mr. Farnsworth this morning), suggests that’s exactly what’s happening.

Stay tuned for more…

More Research:

To get my posts in real-time, just subscribe to this free blog. If you don’t want to get all of my posts via email, just sign up for my MailChimp mailing list instead. For that list, I only send key articles and occasional recaps of all the work I’ve recently done.

Disclosures / DisclaimersI have no position in HMNY. Nor have I traded the stock since launching this blog. Further, I am not aware of anyone who has been or become short HMNY or its derivatives since launching this blog.

This is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.

I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter.  Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.

The primary purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.


69 thoughts on “MAJOR UPDATE: MoviePass Hits 2.5M Subs, But 2018 Cash Burn Estimate Worsens To $700M

  1. Although you point out that HMNY bought MovieFone with HMNY shares, you don’t suggest that Verizon now has a vested interest in seeing them succeed. Also, it seems there is much more to this that meets the eye as Oath is continuing to see ads for MovieFone AND now MoviePass. I don’t suspect Versizon/Oath committed to the deal for 5.5 strike options if they didn’t see the potential upside to this story…

    I see the 12% “heavy users” percentage as a POSITIVE. It means they have/are penetrating the more casual users better than previously expected.

    Ted is a smart guy, he is aware of the issues with dilution. He obviously has something behind the scenes to take care of liquidity. Everyone knows he can’t raise capital at the current share price…


    1. I’m skeptical that Verizon has any vested interest beyond compensation for their asset.

      As for your comment regarding Ted, that’s a very good point, but not one that has made a difference so far.

      In fact, his actions to date tell me that he sees the stock as his funding vehicle. In other words, he does have a success strategy – diluting the stock as much as needed to get the company to a successful level. Remember, his bonuses are based on market cap, not the share price. Big difference when you are raising hundreds of millions of dollars.


    2. If you look at Ted’s compensation pkg that he basically granted to himself, you will see that he isn’t such a smart guy through the eyes of his shareholders. In his own eyes he probably views himself as a pretty smart guy. Ted cares about Ted. To say that his compensation/bonus plan is ludicrous, that would be an understatement imo.


      1. Actually, I think that makes him brilliant. If he knows that dilution was the only way a funding the company, then setting himself up with a market cap based comp plan is nothing short of genius.I mean that in all seriousness. I really think he has this whole thing planned out and might pull it off… BUT IT’S JUST NOT BEEN IN THE INTEREST OF COMMON SHAREHOLDERS.

        Me, that’s clearly what they’re doing… and it’s their best chance of succeeding.


      2. Ted was smart enough to put the anti dilute clause in the purchase too. I suppose you could argue it is hurting funding directly to MP, but he can waive it if he thought it was best. I am concerned about his comp package as well (always have been), but I don’t think he wants to dilute any more than he has to either. If he’s really that smart, he also has to realize that the people he is doing deals with for stock will go away if the stock keeps tanking and that does him no good at all. I don’t know. I have mixed feelings about this, but I am feeling less negative the more I learn and the more I think about it.


        1. He can dilute as long as people are willing to own his stock. He can reverse split, offer a huge discount to participants in the funding round, rinse and repeat.

          Sans the reverse splits, he has already been doing that. I realized that might be his strategy when he got his comp plan approved. Then, I became convinced after seeing the interview where Mitch said that private companies used to get a boatload of VC funding but they would just do a stock offering whenever they need it.

          I could be wrong, but it’s the only story I can think of where all the pieces fit.


    3. Just to be clear by owning those shares, Verizon definitely has a vested interest in their success, at least for the next year while those shares are locked up.
      However, keep in mind that $20 million is a drop in their bucket, and not something that the heads of finance at Verizon are going to concern themselves with.
      It’s a SMALL positive. Remember, each day point always needs to be weighted appropriately.


      1. Agree. Small drop in the larger pool for Verizon, but also, they paid more than $300 mil for this back in the day, I’m sure they would like to see as much of that capital back as possible. With the mention that there is an agreement with Oath to continue selling ads for MF, including placement for MP ads, shows that there is more here.

        I tend to agree with the blog post on SA concluding that Verizon may add a deal with MP to compete with the TMobile/Netflix, Sprint/Hulu type deals.


    4. Mark – do you take fees or receive any compensation from any of the major theater chains, or from any agent that might represent them? Is your research 100% not biased by any position you hold, plan to hold in the future?


      1. Bob, neither I (nor anyone affiliated with me in any way) receives ANY FORMS of compensation from ANYONE.

        Being 100% honest, I can’t think of ANY reason for me to have any bias. I personally like Ted (he came to my neighborhood to have breakfast across from my place) and I was one of the first people to put HMNY on the map.

        If anything, I WANT them to succeed (and for me to be the one to call the bottom)… but I served Wall Street for 20 years and learned that the best way to further your cause is to be right in front of a lot of people.

        That’s all I’m trying to do (and forewent a lot of shorting profits to show my research to be unbiased). My hope is that the cred I get from this will increase my cred with more people (which can benefit me in many ways in the future).

        Plus, I LOVE and feed off of the kudos I get from people I help to get rich and “save” from losses. When someone tells you that you saved their life, it’s indescribable.

        More than you were asking, but there it is.

        BTW, I have a large email list of investors and expertise on building a following. If I wanted to do anything wrong, I would do it anonymously. The SEC is watching and I learned the hard way that being careless is just as bad to them as being insidious.

        Liked by 1 person

  2. I think they will do something to address the heavy users before the next capital raise, as that would immediately/dramatically lift their valuation if they adjusted the monthly rate or capped movies on those users!


  3. We’ve seen mobile phone companies, landline internet providers, Netflix, and many others eventually do this. The trick is getting the timing right as to when u change your offering. I think in a perfect world MP would wait until after 10mm users BUT given the weak stock, they may do it sooner than later as it would absolutely be a major & immediate positive for the stock price. And honestly even if they did it now, it would only have a minimal short term effect on their marketing/branding/customer perception, as most new/future users wouldn’t fall in the excessive category to begin with.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Can’t argue with that logic. The question is, why haven’t they done it to this point and how will the move impact new customer acquisition.

      I’m not saying it would be negative or positive. I am genuinely curious!



    1. …and dilution until then 😂

      Seriously though, if they can pull that off, there will come a point for the stock where the threat of dilution will be superseded by the imminent prospect of profitability.

      For insight into that, take a look at my model. We have the summer gauntlet and the holiday gauntlet. There is a small window in between those two events, but I would probably look to January for ray of light. So, whichever round of funding will get them through November/December would be the one I would be buying the stock after.


  4. Two quotes from Ted here:

    – Projection increased to 6mil by EOY
    – Profitable by EOY
    – No churn
    – 15% of all US tickets in 3 months

    Nothing disputes the dilution numbers above (made my stomach ache a bit) but still some interesting changes in projections.

    We all know how quickly they move these targets around but the subscriber numbers are one they have consistently under reported.


  5. With your updated rounds above surpassing the number of available shares – we should run if there is a special meeting anytime soon to vote on increasing the number of shares available.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. Ted just answered the question that heavy users are his best marketing tool & he won’t get rid of them – this explains why he hasn’t raised the rate on them or capped their movie limit (YET!). But Ted will have to eventually, and somewhere between now & that 10mm mark. He might do it at the 5mm mark as I believe the best thing about the MovieFone acquisition in the short term is that it will be another strong marketing tool to drive traffic to American Animals on 6/1/18 as MP Ventures $3mm investment in that film could wind up bringing in $50mm+ in revenue between MP at 3mm+ users by then, along with MovieFones 6mm users and the additional buzz it will create. Then after that influx of cash from American Animals, I can then see them adjusting their heavy users price/movie quantity at which point they will be much closer to 5mm users


    1. I have to say, the way you have been presenting your data points has improved markedly over the past few days. And you initially sounded like an uninformed investor throwing opinions against the wall, but everything you have been saying since then has been well researched.

      Hopefully none of that sounds condescending. I just hope you keep it up. We can all benefit from more good research. 👍🏼

      Liked by 1 person

    2. Mark,
      Could Adam Aron at AMC tell distributors that they (AMC) are not interested in renting / screening American Animals ? Could that possibly happen? Interesting if that happens.


  7. No offense taken! All in good debate. I still think the other interesting thing about MovieFone is the integrated e-ticketing w AMC, Regal, Cinemark and how it potentially gives MP more leverage with them. Not to mention MovieFone also relies on Fandango which adds another interesting twist to this evolving story. One thing is for certain, Ted & Mitch are movers & shakers!!


    1. No doubt! I’ve never taken away from Ted’s ability to market, nor Mitch’s ability to operate.

      Given a seasoned CEO and CFO, I honestly believe the situation would be very different right now 👍🏼


  8. Perhaps Ted is too clever by half with his comp package based on Market cap and not share price. Serious investors are aware of this and see that his interest is not completely aligned with shareholders. If it is known that your plan is to crush shareholders no one will want to buy in on anything other than egregious terms. Ted also has a credibility problem with many people due to his prior failures. No customer, vendor or shareholder wants to do business with someone who is known to violate their fiduciary duty. A legitimate company should benefit management and shareholders not management on the backs of shareholders.


    1. Great point. On top of that, I have this sense that this is the opportunity Ted has been looking for his whole life. I am becoming more convinced he does not want to screw it up, but I am still skeptical at the same time. How’s that for riding the fence?

      Liked by 1 person

      1. That’s not riding the fence at all. That’s exactly how I feel. He doesn’t want to screw it up, which is kept me skeptical on the stock. He is seeking success at the expense of current common shareholders. It’s simple and brilliant.


    2. Look, the man has to do what he has to do to make the thing work. VCs weren’t willing to fund them and institutions weren’t willing to back them. So, this was the idea they came up with.

      Personally, I think it’s genius… and frankly, it’s working so far. They’ve raised hundreds of millions of dollars because retail shareholders have been willing to bear the brunt.

      I haven’t been a bear so much as a shareholder advocate. I saw through the plan when the stock was around $12 and have been warning people about it ever since. They have every right to do what they are doing… and I have every right to warn people about it…

      …and people have every right to listen or not.

      I do get the feeling that, at some point, they might be able to hit an inflection point. The key to profiting on this story will be timing that inflection point properly. Personally I think it’s still too early because I see multiple funding rounds still ahead of them.

      When that changes, so will my view.


  9. Another thought on the Verizon stock deal. Would they agree to this deal with several potential rounds of dilution on the horizon. Espescially with the lock up until next year?


    1. Yes. They were probably happy to ditch it and didn’t look into the capital structure situation before taking the stock… or took enough to account for some measure of dilution. I can’t imagine that Moviefone was worth anything close to $23M.


    2. It doesn’t make sense to me to accept so little cash and a potentially worthless stock. AOL ventures was an original investor in MP. I wonder if they still own a stake. If so, then this payment makes more sense and indicates that AOL/Yahoo/Verizon/Oath (whatever) will be more involved and active in helping MP succeed.


      1. That’s a fair point. Not sure if they fully understand the dynamics of the stock. Either way, it occurred to me that the deal works out for Verizon if moviepass invests substantial capital, increasing the amount of ad placement revenue for its Oath division.


    1. Yep, but would have to come at a BIG discount for Verizon to do it. Sprint is doing something with Smith Micro’s (SMSI) subscription service, but only paying about half of retail price for it. For SMSI, it’s great, because it doesn’t cost them anything to service extra customers. For MoviePass, not so much.


      1. It’s not how carriers do it. You can learn a lot about this by speaking with Smith Micro (SMSI). They know almost everything about how the carriers work. A partnership is the best hope.


    1. My view would change, but VERY little.

      Some institutions have a problem with proxy investments, but many do not. It IS an issue, but only a small one. Ben R has overrated it in my (and others’) professional opinion.

      Their incredible levels of dilution come from needing so much funding. Going public won’t change that. Institutions won’t magically start believing in MoviePass if the proxy disappears. It will help, but not a LOT.

      In addition to being true, you can simply observe that they would have already done something about it if they felt it would help a lot. Does anyone really believe that they enjoy doing such horribly priced/structured rounds of financing?

      Hope that helps…

      p.s. companies like VMW, Alibaba, and even Heelys (remember those shoes) and many others had public proxies. The impact of the proxy depends largely on the proxy.

      Example: if you wanted to invest in VMW before the IPO, you had to buy EMC. But if you hated EMC as a company, then you discounted what you were willing to pay for EMC if it DIDN’T have its stake in VMW.

      THEN, you added what you were willing to pay for VMW to derive what you were willing to pay for EMC’s shares.

      In the case of MoviePass/HMNY, HMNY isn’t worth very much to anyone. You can discount it to zero and still be willing to pay a good valuation for it because of its stake in moviepass.

      I’ve said it before, and has done a great job with the analyzing the situation, but failed to put the proper waiting on each data point which is either sign that he has confirmation bias, or simply doesn’t understand how much weight each data point should receive.

      That’s NOT a slight on Ben (or anything for him to be ashamed of). Professional investors often require 10 years of experience to become good. Ben is quite excellent for the amount of professional-level experience he has accumulated.

      Personally, I believe that his biggest weaknesses overestimating what he knows about stocks (possibly because of his substantial experience in business — there’s a big difference between the two!). He debates with the bravado of a veteran. (though his diligence in consulting with professionals is to be lauded… that’s EXACTLY how I was able to transform from a TERRIBLE investor into an early retiree, back in the mid-90s).


      1. Thanks Mark. Just to be clear, you argue that you believe that mp may be a success, but current hmny shareholders will not benifit much due to continued dilution. If an ipo was announced soon, wouldnt that at least temporarily put that fear to bed at least as it pertains to mp cash burn?


        1. When will percent yes to the first part of your statement, but when you’re percent no way we got to the second part.

          An IPO has ZERO impact on the company’s operating cash burn (more accurately known as “cash flow from operations”).

          An IPO is just another round of funding!

          If the IPO valuation stinks, it creates just as much dilution as any other type of funding round would (at the same valuation / terms).

          The advantage of an IPO is the higher level of publicity it brings to the company.


    1. Ted is always talking about having deals up his sleeve. I fell for that late last year. When it comes to Ted, it’s better to believe it when you see it.

      I’m not saying that he’s a liar. He’s not, in my honest opinion… but he IS sly / shrewd. He definitely has deals up his sleeve, but so does every other company in the world. The difference is that he consistently talks about them prematurely.


  10. Hi Mark,

    Regarding the Movifone acquisition, here is some additional info:

    1. Till a few years back, more than 90% of the Movifone users has a “movie showtime” intent. Assuming this is still true, this is a large repository of registered and unregistered users who like going to movies.

    2. Moviepass acquires 30-50K additional subscribers by running annual subscription specials with discounts of $15 per subscriber. This should cost ~$15*50K = $0.75M to the company.

    3.IMO, considering customer acquisition cost, moviefone is a great acquisition and will also be a source of short term cash flow. Even if 5% of the 5.4M Moviefone users (excluding 10% mentioned userbase overlap) sign up for an annual plan, this could generate ~$25M in cash i.e break even to the total cost of movifone. Note they just had to pay $1M in cash for this upfront. Compared with 2 above, clearly this is a great deal and add it to it the continuous advertising/influencing revenues. If they are able to get a higher sign-up rate via special offers for registered users, more $$$.


    1. Well, some of your numbers don’t make sense (i.e. you CAN pay for a deal with PROFITS, but NOT revenue… especially not unprofitable revenue), but you have some interesting concepts. Most notably I agree that the Moviefone base could represent a low CAC source of new subscribers.

      I’ve been thinking a lot about what this deal means for their strategy… and what their strategy is. I have a feeling that annual subscriptions may not be a part of it going forward. I’ll explain why in an upcoming post.


  11. The numbers are to the best of my research based on various resources available (paid and free). If I were Mitch/Ted, I’m faced with three challenges right now, in order of priority :

    1. Generate immediate operating cash :

    -Annual subscriptions seem to be the easiest mode of raising more cash. As Mitch mentioned in one of his interviews, they are now thinking about cash month to month rather than traditional funding. Any new property or exposure to a bundle with a popular service is desirable. I’m on watch for the latter.

    – With the existing stock price situation as you have rightly called out, dilution is an option but will be exercised if required. I also feel that it takes fair amount of effort to get this set-up.

    -Private placement is difficult due to the proxy nature of the set-up. I’d like to hear clearly from the company what their plan is to resolve this. All these interviews talk about naive topics where Mitch/Ted just repeat what they’ve said before.

    -ICO : In the most recent interview with Yahoo he says they have definite plans of an ICO once regulations are clear. I have a feeling Ted doesn’t understands what an ICO is based on his comments in the interview. But this could generate some of the the cash they are looking for.

    2. Generate Revenue streams : This is where I would like to see more transparency, though note that establishing consistent revenue stream will take at-least 1-2 years.

    – Exhibitor Revenue : They have just thrown a $6 number, but I’d like to hear more how they are generating this.

    – Advertising revenue : (note Oath is going to exclusively provide ads for and non-exclusively for Just starting and is not meaningful.

    -Ventures Revenue : MP ventures, if the first one is successful. Need clarity on the roadmap, no immediate benefit.

    – Other Ecosystem revenue : Night and the movies etc. This will take time, and I don’t see any progress in the next 6 months other than a one-off kind of discount deal.

    3. Increase subscriber base : This is happening organically with word of mouth/regular PR at no cost, and is a by-product of 1 above.

    Curious, what do you think?


    1. I think that’s a very good listing / assessment. I’m not so sure about the annual subscriptions, because they stopped offering them for a reason.
      They may be prepping to place a limit on monthly usage and don’t want their heaviest users to hide behind an annual plan. It’s easier for them to impose a monthly limit on monthly users because the service expires every month (though Sprint ran into issues with this and their new offering with SMSI). In contrast, I don’t think they could change the service terms on annual subs.
      I think they may want to continue building their subscriber base under the current terms at least until November (because they have said that heavy users are their best word-of-mouth marketers) and then pull the trigger to save themselves from the holiday gauntlet…
      …which means that they’re going to enter the summer gauntlet as is, which I believe will require around $200 million of funding.
      p.s. thanks for the $6 million exhibitor data point. I didn’t catch that one… but was that their annual run rate? Quarterly? Monthly?


  12. I’m still hopeful that “inventory management” will significantly decrease their cash needs to fund the gauntlet of the summer movie release calendar. Mitch consistently talks about inventory management.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. Separately, one additional benefit of the MP & MovieFone merger is greater scale to potentially negotiate deals up & beyond the obvious/hopeful (AMC, Regal, CineMark). Mitch Lowe (per Reddit) is finally addressing a nagging service issue due to the bad movie showtime feeds the app currently receives and will be upgrading both services in mid-May to Webedia, who currently feeds Fandango & Atom’s showtimes.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s