My Top 7 Holdings… Including a NEW Pick!

Opening Disclosure — Long-time readers should note some significant changes in how I communicate in the public domain. The primary purpose of this forum is now to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

Accordingly, this document should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation of the companies or securities discussed herein. I am not an investment advisor and this is not an investment thesis. It is merely one part of the story, which I present for debate in hopes of determining all risks and upside potential. The disclosure at the end of this piece is critical to understanding the content and context of this document. Further, I frequently trade my positions and may buy, sell, or short the securities mentioned herein at any time, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

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The LD Micro Conference proved that research pays. Without getting into specifics, suffice it to say that the conference paid big dividends before it was even over… and continues to do so.

Being there, I was able to see how much interest companies like SMSI and AEHR are starting to attract. More importantly, I was able to meet with face-to-face with management and gain an even greater understanding of where their businesses are heading.

This gave me confidence to continue buying SMSI throughout the week, making it my largest position ever.

Much respect to Chris Lahiji, David Scher, Wade Hickok, Jennifer Littlefield, and Conrad McKinnon (among others) for putting on a great show.

In honor of the LD Micro event, today’s video is going to introduce you to a new Top 7 holding in my portfolio, which came as a direct result of my attendance at the conference!

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Before jumping in, I want to invite you all to participate in contributing to my newest Special Report. For the last Special Report, over 150 of you participated in my “SMSI Census”. The data which came from that report helped the participants make 25% in just a few weeks!

The next report is going to involve information from local Sprint stores around the country. I’ve already been collecting data from various sources and it appears very bullish for Smith Micro (SMSI). If you participate, you’ll get an early look (at least one week) at the Special Report I will write, which will analyze the data!

Here’s all you need to do:

* Call 3 Sprint Stores in your area and write down their phone numbers.

* Ask them 1) if they have Safe & Found posters in the store, 2) are they selling Safe & Found, and 3) how’s it going? If possible, see if they’ll tell you what % of customers are signing up.

* CLICK HERE and send me your results.

FYI, don’t be surprised if none of your stores have it. Also don’t be surprised if the feedback is negative. Inevitably, there will be some of that. However, from ALL of the data I’ve collected so far…

1) A small-but-rapidly-growing percent of stores have the posters,

2) Over 80% of the stores with posters are actively selling Safe & Found,

3) It’s being received very well, especially by moms. Some stores are signing upwards of 4 customers per day!

To understand what that ALL means (the good and the bad), you have to analyze the data. That’s where I (and the upcoming Special Report) come in.

 

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OK, almost time for the video. FYI, yesterday I issued a public challenge to the MoviePass bulls. I said…

“Choose your champion(s) to join me in a friendly (but fight-to-the death) debate on the MoviePass business model. I’m willing to debate up to three willing (and more importantly, able) bulls.”

Well, a champion has been chosen and we’ll be setting a date for the debate shortly, so stay tuned!

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With that said, here’s my latest videocast. Enjoy!

 

 

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Disclosures / Disclaimers: I am long SMSI. However, this is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.

I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter.  Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.

The primary purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

21 thoughts on “My Top 7 Holdings… Including a NEW Pick!

      1. It is but games like PUBG and Fortnite are boring to watch IMO and the article hits on that. There is so much dead time (even when playing it) and trying to cover 100 players is nearly impossible early on.

        I expect team games like HoTS and Overwatch to be bigger draws and more TV-friendly.

        Liked by 1 person

  1. As someone who has a lot of my portfolio in Tencent and has played Fortnite on PC since it came out (just got it on my Switch as well) and plays numerous multi-player games, I would NOT buy HEAR at this level.

    I own about 2 different gaming headsets (Turtle Beach and Sony) along with two nice pairs of Audio Technicas. The Turtle Beach headset is my least favorite.

    The hype is overblown at this point and the risk/reward isn’t worth it for me.

    The one recent game comparison you missed is Minecraft. The public reaction, multi-platform, wide age group and hype resemble it the most.

    I don’t care what new game or platform comes out there is only a certain group of gamers who want to interact with others over voicechat, otherwise a better/normal headset is preferable IMO.

    You only need ONE gaming headset regardless of how many games you play, yes I agree there is re-buying but most people get attached the the comfort/fit of their headset and don’t want to replace it as long as it doesn’t fail.

    I expect your comment of “demand falling off a cliff” will come sooner rather than later. Just like any other gaming component there is hype and shortage, just look at graphics cards or when the Rift first came out.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Hey, thanks for the great feedback. The issues you raise are exactly why I have focused on selling/shorting the January puts instead of buying the stock.

      By selling the puts I have collected enough premium that I won’t lose any money unless HEAR drops below $11 before January…

      …and I expect that the strong demand for gaming headsets will at least persist through the holidays, setting up the expectations of a big Q4 earnings announcement, which probably won’t happen until early March (which is why I chose the January options).

      If I’m right, with conservative second-half guidance in place (per management), the stock SHOULD at least be able to hold the $17.50 level through year-end, which is where it was when I met with the company in Los Angeles last week.

      Yes, it could go lower than that level, but it could also go higher. Either way, my profits will remain positive as long as the stock remains above $11 through the holidays…

      …and that’s why I’m advocating that trade, NOT owning the stock or buying calls.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. ps: HEAR is another great stock to sell covered calls on. I’ve been doing this with SQ and recently started with HEAR. I sell covered calls on half my position. If it gets called away, I sell cash-secured puts. The premiums both ways are insane for highly volatile momentum stocks like SQ and HEAR and this technique lowers your overall cost average on the idea.

    Liked by 3 people

  3. Really enjoyed the video and insight, and found your research as a long term AEHR holder. While you mention not to be too concerned with whether you like the product, interested in your thoughts on SMSI with respect to the reviews showing that the app ratings are fairly low, 2.6 in the Google store, 2.7 Apple…which is much lower than I would typically download. Thank you and plan to follow in the future.

    Like

    1. Hey Ash! Welcome aboard. As you will quickly find, I’m a nice guy but will always instruct my readers to look at my past research for questions that I’ve already been answered.

      In this case, your question has indeed been answered on multiple occasions. You can find the answer in my past posts.

      Looking forward to hearing from you some more!

      Mark G

      Like

  4. The options on SMSI are very thinly traded, but it makes it possible to pick up great deals. I set some low limit orders and can’t believe some of the calls I got. Been getting most of mine at $2.50 and $4 calls.
    The breakeven price in 10/18 & 01/19 is about what the stock is trading right now for the $1 calls. That seems crazy cheap.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. Also, another strategy if your account type allows it is to sell puts as a means of purchasing the stock at a cheaper price. The 2.50 October 19 puts are being traded for about .50 each right now. Meaning that you would effectively be purchasing SMSI shares for 2.00 each (if they were at that price in October), or you would just be collecting some credit from this.

    Like

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