Update On My Shorts

Long-time readers should note some significant changes in how I communicate in the public domain. The primary purpose of this forum is now to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

Accordingly, this document should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation of the companies or securities discussed herein. I am not an investment advisor and this is not an investment thesis. It is merely one part of the story, which I present for debate in hopes of determining all risks and upside potential. The disclosure at the end of this piece is critical to understanding the content of this document. Further, I frequently trade my positions and may buy, sell, or short the securities mentioned herein at any time, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

 

A few weeks ago, I released a post revealing my shorts. In it, I said that I don’t typically write up short ideas. Well, the performance of the shorts I presented demonstrate why.

As a group, they have served as an effective hedge against the stock market.

They’ve gone up about 2%, underperforming the market (S&P 500 +5% and NASDAQ 100 +9%) and vastly underperforming my longs (which have absolutely ripped over the last month, as many of you have experienced firsthand).

However, their individual performances have varied greatly and would only serve to hurt my public track record had I decided to place them on my official interest list. In particular, MFIN and FIZZ have risen more than 20%, while MDXG and the RIOT calls I wrote have gone down by more than 20%.

Most importantly (for the purposes of this post, I have covered many of those shorts. Among those originally listed names, I now only hold bearish positions in APOG, MDXG, RIOT (I’m short the calls), SBH, and SLM (and have added new shorts, like HMNY).

I just wanted to provide a quick update for those who might be curious.

Cheers

p.s. I’d like to thank Bob Visse (www.bobvisse.com and @bvisse on StockTwits) for providing me with some brand loyalty perspective, which led to my getting off the fence and covering my FIZZ short.

He hasn’t been so successful in changing my mind about HMNY, but he’ll have his shot when we debate LIVE !

That will be coming soon, so stay tuned for details…  ;^)

 

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Disclosures / Disclaimers: I am short APOG, HMNY, MDXG, RIOT, SBH, and SLM. I am also short the market via long positions in SH and RWM (which are bearish ETFs). However, this is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.

I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter.  Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.

The primary purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

8 thoughts on “Update On My Shorts

  1. Wait Wait Wait, someone else got you off your FIZZ short? In light of my posn in the shares as you know, please share with me whatever he had shared, it would be greatly appreciated. BTW, I told you a month ago or more not to be short FIZZ!!! I’m mortally wounded

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    1. 😂 you didn’t make a convincing case for brand loyalty. Once that was impressed upon me, I could see that competition (not Bubly… I didn’t see them as a threat) wasn’t going to affect them

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      1. You’re right, I focus (ed) more on financials over brand loyalty which everyone who drinks the stuff knows is the case, i.e. profit margin at 30%, huge growth even vs. Bubly, which to me is much more important than something that is an actual measurement and not subjective

        Liked by 1 person

          1. Hmmm… I don’t see it 🤔

            That’s irksome, but I looked up the 14C. I understand the excitement, but personally wasn’t overly impressed with it.

            I’m much more impressed with the brand loyalty they’ve earned. I’ll be inclined to buy on a pullback. Typically when I shift from bear to neutral, the stock rips… and vice versa (which made me some nice money on both sides of the WDAY and HMNY ledger in recent years).

            #KnowThyself

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  2. There’s that damn brand loyalty again, the 14C wasn’t about excitement but more why now?? I think many will be very surprised at rev/earnings for the qtr just ended unless I’ve posted too much in which case the surprise factor may be a tad less. My 7 followers have some seriously deep pockets!! 🙂

    As for the “pullback” idea, this one I’ve seen too many people with the same idea and relent 10 points higher, I suggest take a small posn. now if it trades as usual which is UP til earnings then down upon release, and I mean down, usually 10%+ But hey, you did retire at ~32 and I had to work til 42, who am I to give you advice!!! ?

    Have a fun weekend sir, talk soon

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