Today’s LIVE Q&A — HMNY Bankruptcy Risk? SMSI Earnings Preview & Turtle Beach Update!

Opening Disclosure — Long-time readers should note some significant changes in how I communicate in the public domain. The primary purpose of this forum is now to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

Accordingly, this document should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation of the companies or securities discussed herein. I am not an investment advisor and this is not an investment thesis. It is merely one part of the story, which I present for debate in hopes of determining all risks and upside potential. The disclosure at the end of this piece is critical to understanding the content and context of this document. Further, I frequently trade my positions and may buy, sell, or short the securities mentioned herein at any time, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

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I realized too late that I didn’t send a blog notification for today’s LIVE Q&A event. It only went out via StockTwits and YouTube. Forgive me for that oversight. I’ll do my best to not make that mistake again.
In any case, here’s the replay. It was a good one. I focused on HMNY in the beginning before providing new info on SMSI and then opening it up to other names (most notably, Turtle Beach).
I’ll be leaving for Europe in a couple of days. It’ll be a two-month trip, but it’ll be business as usual (once I get my Internet situation figured out). Cheers!

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Disclosures / Disclaimers: I am long SMSI and HEAR. I am short HMNY. This is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.

I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter.  Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.

The primary purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

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48 thoughts on “Today’s LIVE Q&A — HMNY Bankruptcy Risk? SMSI Earnings Preview & Turtle Beach Update!

  1. Sorry OldRogue, but I deleted your comment. We are keeping everything 100% professional here. I’m short the stock, but we cannot spuriously make accusations without proof.

    I understand the frustration of people who have been hurt, but venting belongs elsewhere. This here is for pure truth and business.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Thanks Mark. Great stuff. I watched your battle rap on IG too, you did great. I was surprised you were doing that lol.

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        1. They need to string a few contracts together and start getting some consistent earnings (they have no earnings yet).

          That’s how TPCS did it and came back from the dead.

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  3. FYI:
    Got my first txt today about S&F. I will transcribe the general idea:
    —————–
    Hi Spence, Know where your family is located with Sprint Safe & Found. Get your first month FREE ($6.99 after). Download and install here: (link)

    S&F benefits:
    *Locate your loved ones
    *Monitor and limit your kids app usage
    *Track your phone if lost
    *Family Emergency button

    A video is attached to the text of 2 animated moms that goes over the details. A really well done animation.
    ————————————

    I’m already a subscriber of S&F. I followed the links through but got stopped before the download.

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      1. First, I don’t know where the battery drain complaints come from. That’s not an issue. It is true that at first the app will overload you with updates but that’s easy to change in the settings. I think they also made the new release without all of the notifications out the gate.

        The #1 thing that I see is the parental controls. They are fantastic and easy to use. If you have a kid in 4th grade+, they are gonna want a phone. You’re soon going to find out its too much for them to handle. You can go through app by app and for example say: Fortnight: 0 hours during school and 1 hour at night between 8-9pm. You also can stop all apps from installing without your permission. You can also with a single click block all improper websites. Or block by category or manually block. I wish this was around when my kids were growing up. My opinion for awhile now is from a marketing standpoint, the location service is the low hanging fruit. Its easy to train employees and easy to explain when you only have 5 seconds. The heart of this right now is the parental controls. Its great that Sprint is doing more of a push from that angle.

        The location service is very good. I have experienced some of the problems with a user being somewhere and not showing up. But that’s because honestly, the Sprint network sucks at times. The town I lives in has Sprint dead zones all over the place. Its not a Smith issue. When they are in the city, it works great.

        And btw, I have an android, my kids have Apple and they are on the Cricket network.

        Liked by 4 people

        1. Thanks Spence. Nice to see someone doing their own research instead of relying on the BS that exists on the Internet. This is why so many people lose so much money! 😓

          Kudos to you and thanks for sharing!

          Liked by 1 person

          1. Sure! Its impossible for me to not be biased, but as unbiased as I can be, I think the software is very good and going back in time 10 years ago when my kids were younger, $7 is dirt cheap for what it does. Again, I place all of that $7 on the parental controls even though the location service is good.

            For reference S&F is #78 on Play today. I don’t know if this text went out to everyone or just me. But assuming its more than me, we can see if it has any effectiveness over the next few days.

            There is another thing that is worth all of us reading. We talk about S&F, but the software Safepath is much bigger than S&F. This is an excellent pr on Safepath features from over a year ago: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/smith-micro-launches-safepath-family-50-with-new-features-and-enhancements-also-announces-three-new-carrier-to-enterprise-services-safepath-fleet-safepath-corporate-and-safepath-school-300413661.html

            Management talked about some of this in the last cc. You can let your imagination go and think about the things that can be done with SafePath. Its just up to management to get that in the hands of a carrier.

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          1. I can say this……When you do your own research paired with others like is being done here it makes it a lot easier to have confidence in what you are invested in. This is what is lacking with most investors. They read, listen, and buy, but they don’t do anything further, which in turn makes it very hard for them to control their emotions justify having a position when things happen that they don’t think should happen. They are the ones that are constantly at you on the chat board for re-assurance and the ones that sell and lose out most of the time. I used to be one of them. Glad I am not anymore.

            Focusing on company and fundamentals has truly changed how I invest. A HUGE THANK YOU TO YOU MARK for teaching me very valuable lessons over the last four years! I am now a profitable investor instead of one that had a negative earnings every year. Thank you for all that you do Mark!

            Liked by 2 people

  4. Mark, I was working and never got to view the live Q&A yesterday. I do not care about HMNY so wanted to know if you spoke about SMSI and if so about how far into the video so I do not have to fast forward and miss the part I am interested in.
    Thanks
    Eric

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  5. Big week for HMNY on Monday on the back of their shareholder meeting that day – will they get all their needed votes for the R/S and 5+billion shares? Will be more day trading volatility for sure!

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    1. I just love the silence. The din of the naysayer has fallen dead. Shorting at 38-cents called crazy…

      …and yes, it SEEMED crazy, even to me. But I don’t listen to my impressions or opinions. That got me nowhere in life. I listen to math.

      Boasting? Gloating? YES. Once in awhile, I feel I deserve to swipe back 😈

      Liked by 1 person

  6. It was a good long trade last year & a good short trade this year for you! I’ve stuck to day trading, which has been a trader’s dream given the insane volatility – but eventually it will be time to go long & strong if/when sentiment changes (and I believe it eventually will, when exactly is the million dollar question)…

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      1. Market sentiment is negative & Stock Twitters are bullish, but net net the sentiment is negative as HMNY stock has gone down – hence the broader forces of the stock market on HMNY are much stronger & negative sentiment is currently in control (as yes capital structure is upside down)!!

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  7. Hi Mark, when you provide services to hedge funds for 3k/hour do you have any licenses? Are you able to provide research without any licenses? I am thinking about providing research to folks in my area for 1% your $3k rate (since I am nowhere as knowledgeable) and was wondering how to go about it without being a Registered Investment Advisor. Thanks.

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    1. No license needed if providing research vs. advice. The problem is breaking in. I worked for trusted research firms for 10 years before being able to go off on my own. It’s a GREAT business though. FYI, I preferred annual retainers over the hourly rate (which is why I the rate is so high). I wish you luck.

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      1. Hi Mark,

        Where can I go to learn more about the line between research vs. advice? Or any lawyers you would recommend?

        Also, in your opinion, is LLC the way to go?

        ANY other helpful thoughts?

        Thanks 🙂

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          1. Four horsemen ride over the horizon screaming bloody hell and scorching earth… and everyone laughs, thinking it’s simply Halloween.

            Almost a true story. Look at a chart from Oct 31, 2007.

            It’s doubtless anyone with their eyes open.

            Like

      2. In your opinion, would you charge individual retailer investors and hedge fund / institutional groups the same price for the same research? Or a higher fee to a institutional group? I am talking about the annual retainer fee. Thanks.

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        1. I started to answer the question, but then realized I would be doing you a disservice. The fact that you don’t know the answer tells me that you need to gain a better understanding of the market you’re trying to break into.

          Have you worked for a company that provides similar services as what you want to provide?

          If not, you are very likely starting from a losing position in a market where a winning position is REQUIRED just to SURVIVE.

          I’m not trying to be discouraging. To the contrary… I’d like to see you go down the right path so you can be successful.

          Need experience for that. I recommend going out and getting it. Learn the business from within a business. When the time comes, you will know that it’s time to go off on your own.

          Just being honest, based on seeing dozens try and fail… and a few try and succeed. It’s a near 100% correlation.

          #patience

          Like

          1. Well thanks for your honest feedback. I’ve seen an annual retainer / sub service done successfully to retailer investors. I’ve never worked in that context, but I’ve examined it carefully, with multiple case studies, over several years. So I understand that market. And that is my primary market. I just don’t know if I were to occasionally provide the same services to an institutional group whether I would charge more and by how much? My strong instinct is to charge more, but I am not an expert on the institutional side. Only the retail side.

            That is why your input could help me. I’m already in motion, so I’m not going to stop now. I think I have something to offer.

            My approach will be a bit different than most. On Twitter and Seeking Alpha there is a service on every corner. I might eventually bring my service to market there, but I am really hitting a different target market. I am going after the everyday American unfamiliar with stock research, unfamiliar with Seeking Alpha, or StockTwits. I will try to partner with certain types of people who already have developed client bases.

            I am certainly still learning. But to me this is the food chain of investment education. Someone’s expert is always a novice compared to someone else. But what I see is that even those who wish to decentralize the investment education industry are only scratching the surface. They are not coming close to reaching the everyday American.

            That’s my thoughts on the issue. Any feedback is helpful.

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          2. You should charge a LOT more, but it needs to be a MUCH higher level service.

            A lot of what I teach now is the kind of detailed analysis that the institutions want (and require), but most retail investors are oblivious about… and that creates the window of opportunity for you to provide a high-end service to the institutions without holding something back that retail investors want.

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          3. Thanks, Mark. Well what’s the going rate out there?

            For retailer investors I would say the going rate is $500-1500 / year for basic research.

            Is that basic research useless to institutional investors at $1500 / year. If I were an institutional investor and someone was giving me golden ideas with only basic research, I wouldn’t mind paying $1500 / year and doing some additional research of my own.

            Or am I missing something and would basic research for a low price be worthless to tutes?

            But with your suggestion, and the higher level of research, what is typical in the industry?

            I first assume you cannot cover more than 5-10 stocks at a time in depth.

            For 5 stocks a year in depth, what is the going rate? 10 k / year? 25 k / year?

            I appreciate your attention and answers on this public forum. I just want to gather a bit of perspective from you since you are someone who has done this successfully. You have perspective I don’t have.

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          4. I really don’t know anymore, But I really don’t think there is a “standard” price. Many things on Wall Street are priced based on the perception of value.

            I used to charge an average of $60,000 per year for access to everything I know… But I started at 15 K per year to get my foot in the door and then raised the price every year until I got pushback.

            OK, got to get back to work. Good luck.

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  8. I thought the earnings and guidance for AEHR were very good. Hopefully the AH price is not a reflection of what the street thinks. Any other thoughts?

    Like

  9. I am not interested in HMNY but for those that are. I am currently at an AMC theater and they just had an ad for 3 movies a month for 19.95 at any AMC theater.

    Like

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