Making Trades Today — LIVE From Budapest @ Noon (Eastern Time)!

Hey Everyone. I’ll be wrapping up my research on Hungary tomorrow. The quick story is that the economy is looking good here and I’m liking the real estate market in some prime areas.
But today, I’m making some stock market moves which will impact my 1% Portfolio.
I will review the 1% Portfolio and share my latest moves with you LIVE from Budapest at noon (eastern time).
Time permitting, I’ll open it up for Q&A on ANY STOCK I know. As always, we’ll get started as soon as 30 viewers join in, so please spread the word.
Cheers!

 

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37 thoughts on “Making Trades Today — LIVE From Budapest @ Noon (Eastern Time)!

      1. Management answered that on the call. Obviously, I love it! This was a fantastic water. There’s no other way around it.

        Everyone thought that safe and found was the driver, but it turns out that the rest of the business can drive growth and profits… so imagine what will happen as safe and found gets bigger and bigger (as Management stated it will)!

        Couldn’t be happier 🔥🔥🔥

        Liked by 4 people

  1. I think they knocked it out of the park (SMSI). I really liked their enthusiasm about the interest among other several tier one carriers for Safe & Found; even mentioned they hope to have a PR soon. The only disappointment was that Sprint has not pulled the plug on Family Locator yet. I’m starting to realize what a huge advantage they have over their competition based upon their vast history of working with the big carriers.

    Thanks again Mark for finding this undiscovered gem!

    Like

    1. Thanks for the kudos. That’s a great summary. I am not disappointed by the late sunset date. It just shows that a sticky product is hard to kick out, which bodes well for the future of Smith’s products at Sprint and others.

      Ultimately, the old product will go away and Smyth will benefit from that. In addition, as long as they keep innovating (and they have made it very clear that they will) Smith will hold their position.

      In short, I couldn’t be happier with these results. This is a much more substantial and well-rounded company than most anybody realizes.

      Liked by 2 people

  2. Awesome CC, they really sounded confident and enthusiastic about the potential uses of Safepath, including several mentions of the wearables and security etc, all from one source which Bill Smith emphasized. I wonder if those product pipelines or expansion plans for Safepath were the ones I saw in their website that had Safepath Fleet, Corporate and School.

    And its great that Commsuite is evolving and growing as well. Thank you Mark for all your research and time in this, I have never seen a stock so well researched, dissected and invested in time and money. Now every PR will just be a bonus and execution from management. Imagine if they lock in another tier 1 which Bill Smith is garnering lots of interest right now. Go SMSI

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Another great synopsis. I love what I’m seeing here. As a group of intelligent minds, if we all work together with the proper mindset towards fundamental research, we can find winners like this all the time.

      Money for everyone! 🙌🏼🔥🙌🏼

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Feel you were completely off base in your analogy that AEHR only had a 1 in 10 chance of being successful and by inference a 9 in 10 chance of losing everything. I’m pretty sure that is not what you meant and were just making a point on high risk high reward situations in general of not having too much risk in one stock. However, it could be interpreted like I stated above.
    AEHR has much more cash than debt and is profitable and growing. I don’t see it as a home run or nothing situation although I do see the home run potential. You may it seem like AEHR is one of these biotech with no revenue.

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  4. They talked about new customer acquisition going “straight up” and also the sunset delay. Sprint is no longer forcing people over to S&F as they were a few months ago. Very good news.
    The app has been ranking low in category, BUT that’s 100% non-Family Locator installs. You can also see this on the reviews as the “bring back FL” comments aren’t being posted anymore. That FL honeypot isn’t being touched and they are still generating a profit! #75 in Lifestyle isn’t low when almost all of that is new installs.

    Like

    1. Spence, aren’t you a bit concerned that Sprint might decide not to sunset legacy users at all? If the breakage is high enough to make that justification (i.e., 20%), then Sprint would have no incentive to lose those 20% of users when they could simply collect revenue from the legacy app. This would represent a loss of 14M in forecast revenue and would change our thesis significantly.

      Mark, interested in your thoughts on this as well.

      (I used 20% as a conservative number, it’s most likely higher)

      Like

      1. Doesn’t bother me a bit. Not 1%.

        If SMSI’s stock price was reflecting the legacy revenue from Sprint, it would be over $7 right now.

        For real. You know my saying… DO THE MATH!!

        Check it… Complete conversion of the non-converted Sprint customers would drop nine cents per quarter to Smith’s bottom line. #Math

        They are now profitable, so that would equate to at least $0.36 of recurring EPS for a company that’s growing fast. #Math

        Tell me that’s not worth $7…

        Math 💯

        Like

        1. I see what you’re saying. I guess I’m a tad bit more conservative than you with regards to their valuation, but I agree that their 14M in forecast revenue isn’t priced in. The continued delay in the sunset was my only concern from the CC, otherwise this was a great quarter and I believe our lower side risk has been reduced significantly from their cost savings outlined in this CC.

          Your forecast that the CFO believes that he can turn the business profitable even without S&F is coming true. They guided towards 5.5M in OpEx (from Q2’s 5.8M), that’s 300k in savings or $0.013 EPS. Also accounting S&F revenue of 300-500k, I’m guessing Q3 is around 0.02-0.04 EPS.

          I wasn’t expecting your reply until tomorrow. Get some sleep, you’re working too hard for a retired guy on vacation 😉

          Like

          1. “I wasn’t expecting your reply until tomorrow. Get some sleep, you’re working too hard for a retired guy on vacation 😉”

            Q. What does a retired guy on vacation do?

            A. Have fun 😊

            Yes, I suppose that makes me crazy, but I have to thank God for making me someone who believes that this is the greatest game ever invented.

            Like

          2. Here is an exercise for everyone to try:

            Look at SMSI’s EPS from this quarter. Then, take all of Management’s commentary from the call and take a stab at predicting next quarter’s EPS.

            THEN, try predicting the quarter after THAT… and the quarter after THAT… etc. Before long, you will have a forecast for 2019 and 2020 and 2021.

            This is the foundation of a DCF analysis.

            Professional investors estimate what earnings are likely to be in the FUTURE. Then, They say, “here is what the stock will be worth in the FUTURE, based on those earnings”.

            Finally, they say, “this is how much I am willing to pay today to have that much money in the future”.

            🔥🔥🔥

            This is exactly why $GAIA went berserk in just a few months. Not a lot of professional investors knew about that company until they went out for a round of funding. When they did, the professionals did their math and said,

            “Holy $&@!, they will earn $2.50 in 2022. This stock will be $50 in a few years!!! I am willing to pay $20 for that now.”

            …and so, it quickly went from $10 to $20.

            It’s as easy as that.

            That is how I play the game, because that is how the game is played. My advantage is that I’m playing it with undiscovered stocks.

            I’m anticipating that they will learn about these stocks in the future. Like an NFL scout, it’s fairly easy to predict how a college player’s talent/skills will fit into a certain system on a certain team to determine how good that player will be.

            This is no different (which is why I also make good money playing fantasy football). To complete the analogy, it is true that some players end up breaking their leg, but that’s just part of the game. Most of the ones who stay healthy can get you to the Super Bowl year after year.

            I can’t predict which ones will get injured. All I know is that I want them all on my team.

            🔥$$$🔥

            p.s. Don’t let this speech distract you from doing the exercise I described at the beginning of this post. If you want to become a more successful investor, changing your mindset to consistently do what I described here is a HUGE part of the equation.

            Frankly, the hardest part about it is changing your mindset and your habits. The calculations are actually pretty easy. Management gives us plenty of clues. We just have to apply them.

            It’s nothing more than logic problem. I guess I owe thanks to whichever relative bought me a book of these when I was nine years old. 🤔🙌🏼💥

            Liked by 1 person

    2. FACTS. I think it’s funny when people pick and choose what aspects of my analysis they wish to hold as their own… especially when they reject or ignore some of the easiest ones 👍🏼

      Like

    1. Yes, because they still expect it. Safe and found offers far more upside for sprint, especially as the IOT devices roll out.

      Soon, the incentive to force customers to move will far outweigh the complaints of those who don’t like change.

      Let’s think with our heads folks. I’m here to teach a man how to fish, not to hand them out. If we all learn how to fish this group will be catching whales.

      Liked by 1 person

  5. The exciting fact that the store level sales reps are being incentivized (commission/bonus) to push S&F is a really big deal. “Adding new subscribers 24 x 7,” growth is straight up and they have not even fully rolled out. This will turn into a very large and sticky cash cow at 80%+ margin with just Sprint. All else is big gravy. Like the “Standby” comment about landing another Tier I. Lots of icing on the cake in the future.

    Like

    1. Are you referring to the mythical Super Cake!

      Thanks for all that you do Mark! The fact that you willingly give so much of your time and teach a valuable skill to so many for free is truly commendable

      Like

      1. No, that’s just the cake!

        Almost nobody makes cake, which is why “cake” is a euphemism for money!

        The recipe for super cake is actually simple. It’s just a layer cake. In other words, if you make cake for enough years the cake stacks up to form a super cake. #CarlIcahn #WarrenBuffett #GeorgeSoros #BillionairesEverywhere

        Like

  6. For me this boils down to 1) SMSI has successfully gotten Sprint rolled out and growing – that’s going to drive sequential growth from here and 2) they have additional layers of growth they can get with new customers and new products in the next few quarters to keep that sequential growing going in 2019 and 2020.

    If they do that while maintaining their margins then the stock will keep going up.

    Like

    1. Bingo.

      Of course, you already know the detailed work that goes behind your simple statement (for anyone who doesn’t know ipocandy.com, you should – he’s one of the best “cake makers” I know).

      This is why I challenged everyone to do that “special exercise” a few comments ago… to gain a rough idea of how much they can earn in 2019, 2020, etc.

      Like

      1. Mark,
        Thanks for all of your analysis combined with teachings to help the less experienced (which includes me)!
        Given the better than expected results and guidance, I assume you plan to hold SMSI for at least another quarter given any unforeseen events?

        Liked by 1 person

  7. Looking at this from a technical perspective, SMSI breaks out once the weekly 200 SMA is broken. All SMSI spikes have been testing this weekly 200 SMA since 2015. Historically a breaking of this area will indicate the next run up for SMSI. Currently the weekly 200 SMA is at 2.70.

    Like

  8. Mark,
    I was stunned that you covered your short on HMNY. It seemed from the analysis that you shared that when the reverse split went through it would create a great opportunity to go short. What did I miss?

    Like

    1. I made a stupid mistake. I didn’t realize that the reverse split would have such an immediate effect. The capital requirements forced me to have $2.50 in cash for every share I owned. At $.10 per share that didn’t make much sense…. but it clearly would’ve been the best move.

      So, I left a couple grand on the table. No big deal….

      Liked by 1 person

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