BIG News On $HMNY $ATTU and $SMSI

I have limited time to post, so I’ll make this quick.
I’m making a YouTube video to discuss the news just announced from HMNY, ATTU, and SMSI, respectively.
By the time you read this, I’ll already be LIVE on YouTube, so tune in and see me working in real-time or check it out later. Cheers!

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Disclosures / Disclaimers: I am long SMSI. This is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.

I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter.  Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.

The primary purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

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62 thoughts on “BIG News On $HMNY $ATTU and $SMSI

  1. I tried to make the following comment during your call today: An import and appealing attribute of SMSI to me is that they are big in the general IOT space, and thus has another potential significant component to their bottom line. Can you briefly comment on their IOT endeavours?

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    1. You’re not the first person who has said that. Based on some feedback I’ve received this week, it’s pretty clear that I need to do more work on this. Just another potential way to win with this company. New ways seem to be emerging every month/quarter.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Thanks Marks — As per usual, your call was very informative and instructional and I think I can speak for most others in saying we really appreciate your efforts.

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  2. I thought your first videos were a bit redundant as they covered a lot of stuff already covered in the blog. Showing your process in this most recent video was incredibly informative to a newb like me. I can understand why you keep some cards close to your chest, but I personally would like to see more videos like this.

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  3. Hey Mark,
    Love the work you’re doing and have been long time follower. Two things.

    1. I feel like the HMNY thing has been beaten todeath and given that you no longer have a short or long interest, perhaps we can move on from that?
    2. Great call on Turtle Beach (HEAR). Personally had a great month of 66% gain in 8/18 AUG 20 Naked puts and closed out the position just before Yesterday’s pull back!

    Liked by 1 person

    1. 1. No. Plenty of meat left on that bone. I wouldn’t waste my time on it if it was a waste of time 😉 A lot of investors are still stuck on/in that one and it attracts views. Have to think strategically 🤑

      2. Congrats! 🙌🏼

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  4. Sorry one other question…When hand calculating free cash flow how do you treat Receivables and Payables? Do you net those out and either add the positive or negative value to cash and equivalents?

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  5. Mark, per your video, your math numbers are all wrong!
    Helios won’t need to issue 700 million shares to get the next $50 Million. You forgot to divide by 250 when figuring. Helios, at today’s opening price of $21.25 would need to issue 2,352,941 shares to raise $50 Million. Yet, as Helios dropped to close 50% below it’s open today, now at $10.60 per share, Helios would need to authorize and sell 4.7 million shares to raise $50 million, not the billions of shares you stated. Helios may have already raised some bukoo bucks, did you see today’s crazy volume!

    Also, someone else here posted that you are no longer short hmny… when did this happen? I got no email notice, nothing to state as you said you’d let your readers know right away that you’re no longer short. Maybe in yesterday’s video? If so, in writing, clear and concise, is how to inform folks. No time to watch your vid yesterday, and then have to listen to the entire thing. A quick email is just that, quick and visible.

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    1. Hey… first of all, calm down.

      It’s easy to confirm that I clearly state at the start of the video that I was talking about pre-split numbers. I also state my disclaimers at the start of EVERY video AND in my reports.

      Ask ANYONE else here if they agree with you. I’ve been doing this for 27 years and learned the importance of disclosures the hard way.

      I appreciate your point, but it would be best to double-check your information before accusing a seasoned professional of making mistake only a newborn amateur would make. I say that with all respect.

      Again, I ask if anyone in this forum agrees with you.

      Namaste.

      Liked by 3 people

  6. Ok, thanks, so neither of us is actually wrong.

    You did conclude $.11 as share price after all the $1.2 Billion raise, but no mention it was new share price when directly speaking and working everything in old share price numbers. Seems better context to work new share number anyway. We know about $50M a month needed, so basic question is how many shares needed to sell to raise $50M per month. About 107k shares a day at start of today’s share price. Now double that based upon end of day share price.

    And arguing with siri I tried to consider funny…? Certainly seasoned. Lighten up some. Seems we’re both correct.

    As to giving immediate notice, a simple email would be cool. Or in subject line of email about your available video.

    I appreciate your work and deduction.

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    1. My video said something like “making trades today $HMNY”, but I hear you.

      Frankly, it’s probably best that many missed it. Many might have bought, thinking I was no longer bearish. 🤷🏻‍♂️😂

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  7. I am curious from the perspective of a professional investor why end the short on HMNY? At first glance, the .40c short seemed crazy and the post R/S short seems like an easy call. Was it just a case of you hit the target and its time to move on?
    Did it have something to do with Ted saying on Mon. that the R/S was just an “insurance policy” and he had no intention of using it immediately?(haha..- maybe he can do stand-up in prison)

    Thanks for all of your hard work and dedication. I still have a long way to go but I barely recolonize the investor I was 6 months ago. This particular video was your best imo. Its a tremendous help.

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    1. It was a careless mistake. With everything going on with my travel, earnings calls, etc., I simply didn’t take the time to formulate a game plan.

      In hindsight, I would’ve transferred a ton of money into my account and shorted as much as possible the day before the reverse split was announced. Being professionally-trained doesn’t change one’s species.

      Stock was $.10 and the capital requirements for $2.50 per share. The math didn’t make any sense at those levels…. but I the proper play was to calculate what the math would look like THE NEXT DAY.

      Just dumb dumb dumb + poor advance planning.

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      1. I’m certainly not a professional but I would have pulled the short off too. The trend in the market currently has the R/S running pretty hot the first day, especially if a PR drops same day. However, after watching it, second day would have been game on.

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        1. That’s a totally technical analysis.

          I keep it fundamental here, because THAT is how the BIG money is made…

          …so while I messed it up by covering my 75,000 shares with “only” a 75% gain, I DID do the PROPER analysis by asking myself WHY they were doing the R/S.

          The answer was right in the SEC filings… they couldn’t raise the money they needed without it. Thus, it was obvious to conclude that they would be selling shares right from Day One of the R/S and continuing from there.

          In hindsight, I should have planned this out with my sidekick and told her to make me stick with the proper plan (stay short and get more short the evening before the split).

          Instead (because she was in a different country that day). I made a rash spur-of-the-moment decision. That’s a PERFECT example of how fallible I am without strong rules to govern my actions. My VERY POOR traders DNA struck again 😂

          It’s a GREAT reminder / ego-buster for me and a great lesson for everyone else.

          That’ll pay dividends to all of us soon enough. When I mess up, I get angry and play the game “more right” to make up for the mess up ! 😇🙏🏼

          I’ll probably LIVE video this topic.

          Stay tuned….

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          1. Ha, now that I think about it more, you’re definitely right. I’m learning a particular style this year and it completely clouded my mindset

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          2. That’s the first step to breaking out of The Matrix. Realizing what you think is real, really isn’t.

            Even then, it’s hard because our minds are always our prison. Need reminders imprinted like that movie Momento.

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  8. Yea Mark, I liked this video as well, as it was informative to have you digest and run through the numbers from the SMSI call, step-by-step. This helps me and so many others to gauge potential value and where we (SMSI shareholders) stand after the call. Cheers for that..

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  9. HMNY might end up getting delisted anyways. Market cap is 7m (SP of ~7), which is lower than NASDAQ’s rule of 10M market cap minimum.

    Better than movies and you don’t have to buy a moviepass to watch, lol.

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    1. I believe there are a lot more shares outstanding now (after the past couple days of trading). They getting close to adding close to 100,000 post-split shares per day (about 20 million shares pre-split).

      As I warned weeks ago, the share count is going parabolic.

      Like

  10. Mark, do you have reason to believe Chardan will initiate and more analyst will start covering SMSI now, given how many analyst were on the call?

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    1. Sure, but I don’t worry about that. The value of a company isn’t based on coverage or catalysts… only the stock’s movement (trading).

      While coverage will increase the company’s visibility, and probably stock price, I would rather see the story unfold and be able to continue buying the stock at discount prices (as I did yesterday). 😊

      Cheers

      Like

      1. Makes sense. Also i noticed that since the graphics side of the business right now (as i understand they are a reseller only correct?)has decreased past two qtrs now i believe , they have stated they are introducing more products to increase sales,do you get the sense that somehow they are prioritzing this side of the business in spite of it right now being an albatross?

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        1. I don’t see it as priority vs. non-priority. They have numerous businesses that roll up into the SMSI whole.

          Each one is its own small army unit. Each one has leaders, so if CFO Tim thinks it’s a good bet for the company’s $$$, the soldiers are set in motion.

          I trust Tim. He’s EXACTLY what the company needed. 🔥🔥🔥

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          1. Thank you Mark. I really like his cost reduction in place as well. I suppose at this juncture the graphics division can only add to the revenue which is a big plus.

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    1. Maybe someone should buy the entire market cap, kick Ted and Mitch out, provide a little funding and fix the business model to something that would actually work.

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  11. HMNY – so which will it be: 1) Bankruptcy, 2) They drastically change biz model come Monday morning, 3) Strategic cash infusion/sale of 51% controlling stake to Netflix or similar, 4) Full sale of MoviePass, 5) Other

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      1. #2 is a no brainer, but Ted is one stubborn SOB 😉 The BOD needs to fire him already so MP can live to fight another day. It will be interesting to see what next week brings to this endless soap opera!

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        1. If I could add my 2c it is easy to see Ted’s plan from the beginning when you look back. He did the deal with the anti dilute clause for MP, so MP could not dilute him. Meanwhile advertised that a MP IPO was coming. Then he got the board to approve his market cap comp plan which also protected him from any stock dilution. After that it was a matter of selling stock for as long as someone would buy it and refusing to lift the anti-dilute so MP could do their IPO. When it wasn’t working, he started lying IMO out of desperation, because that was his background in the penny stock world. Make grand statements, pump it up and raise more cash. No other way to put it. I have a list of all of his quotes that were lies and it is my very strong opinion (not speaking for Mark or anybody else) that they were intended to deceive.

          Why not adjust the model when he saw it was not working you say? Scared to lose the limelight of being the fastest growing subscription service ever. That is also my opinion. In his head it was all going to work out. He was never able to reconcile that with reality.

          Liked by 1 person

      2. if BK happens, major lawsuit coming subscribers and shareholders alike i imagine. I think even Costco would be dragged into this by virtue of their 1 year subscription.

        I always wondered why they never charged more($15), sure lose some subscribers but at least sustainable. It seemed like they were hell bent on getting as many subscribers as possible just to have leverage over AMC and such, but at what cost. Yikes.

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  12. If they had any intent to make this work they would have raised the price or down something other than run it straight off a cliff with no attempt to stop the bleeding. Ted just told shareholders the other day the 250-1 split would be only down the road as a last resort and he turned around 8 hours later and did the split. He KNEW the split was already a done deal and yet he deceived the shareholders yet again. Mark can say how nice a guy Ted is but he is a liar and charlatan.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. When management makes millions while wiping out every shareholder in less than a year there is something amiss. Business reporters have already sniffed out the unsavory beginnings of the parent company from India. The more rocks they turn over the uglier this is gonna get. They collect $30 million a month from subs and they have been exchanging printed shares for cash ad nauseum. A short time ago Ted said they had plenty of cash. All of a sudden they just turn off the app cause they didn’t set aside enough money for tickets?

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    1. It’s not that they didn’t set it aside… it’s that they thought they could raise it as needed and ad nauseum. Pun intended.

      As I’ve said for months, the CFO is weak and didn’t see what I saw in the dilution math. Now, they’re FINALLY retrenching as I recommended, but may be past the event horizon.

      We shall see…

      Like

  14. Finally, MP raising the base price to $14.95 (a few months earlier than I predicted) but obviously they were forced to do what was needed. Plus several other new measures too!

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    1. They finally saw the event horizon. It will be interesting to see whether they saw it before or after they entered it. I will discuss this live at 10:30 AM Eastern time today (10 minutes from now)!

      Like

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