Stock Update (Including Cannabis Stocks) LIVE TODAY (Sept 26) on YouTube at 12:30PM !

I’m finally back at my office in Miami.
I’ve done some new homework and will go LIVE today at 12:30PM ET to update you on my biggest positions… and to answer all of your questions!!
As usual, we need enough people (40) to make it worthwhile, so spread the word and tune in!
SEE MY 1% PORTFOLIO HERE: 1% Portfolio
SEE MY SMSI WORKSHEET HERE: SMSI Worksheet

If you miss the live broadcast, be sure to check it out later. Cheers!

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114 thoughts on “Stock Update (Including Cannabis Stocks) LIVE TODAY (Sept 26) on YouTube at 12:30PM !

  1. Hi Mark, good video as always. In terms of Smith Micro, do you know at what point they will start receiving/recognizing revenue from Telenor Thailand and Telenor Serbia?

    Liked by 1 person

    1. The consensus among myself and a handful of participants is that SMSI confirmed my thesis without making any aggressive proclamations. I like what they’re doing… maintaining a conservative stance and executing.

      Like

          1. casting that aside, Huffmeyer was such a terrible speaker. I really thought he would stress the financial aspect of the business esp being profitable but i didnt hear any of that, even in 2nd listening because i missed some segments. but he didnt come close to telling a good story, but at least i got some positives points that i really like such as new customers are growing. I dont know why some investors are putting a lot of weight on the european carriers,sure it would have been nice to see something out of it, its a bonus but thus far it hasnt really materialized in any of the qtrs, its always been about sprint and both SF & Commesuite are growing.

            Like

          2. Seems like some people might’ve bought the shares in speculation of something big and are now selling them off. Fair game for a trade, but shortsighted relative to the valuation. To each their own. I roll with the punches.

            Like

          3. I agree Huffmeyer was not exciting to listen to, but the biggest problem was that he said we are going to “replace” the revenue we lost last quarter with the growth in CommSuite and Safe Path. That sounded like a flat quarter sequentially, which is probably disappointing to many who follow the stock. That may not be the way he meant it, but some may have decided to sell after hearing that.

            Like

          4. Maybe, but that was already well known. My model has flatter growth in Q3 followed by a resumption in Q4. Either way, Q3 should show a nice increase in EPS due to cost reductions.

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          5. A nice little line that was spoken towards the end and they have continued to emphasize how the Sprint rev, is still not factored in the share price. they had this tidbit in their latest investor presentation and Huffmeyer again stated this earlier. As long we get investors out of this conference then i consider it a success. It hurts short term but the closer we are to the inevitable.

            Im actually surprised that Netwise was still mentioned, considering its not currently found on their website unless really searched on google. But they must really love their graphics division to really be excited on this space, i couldnt count how many times Bill and Tim are so upbeat on this division, I know it will add some revenue soon, must be a really good product that they are expecting to launch/announce soon.

            Like

  2. FYI: I’ve been really busy with work and haven’t had a chance to view your video. I was thinking about switching being disappointed with parental controls for a 13yr old. Now that I have installed iOS 12; my wife and I can approve extra time 🙂 we are happy. Our 13yr thinks iOS 12 is awful and is slowly accepting limited time on the iPad. If Apple had not come out with ‘Screen Time’ then we would have switched cell company if necessary and become customers of SMSI when she gets a iPhone next year for high school; provided she makes the cut and is on sports teams after/before school. Wonder how Screen Time effects SMSI. Just one family experience.

    Like

    1. As I have discussed many times, there will be plenty of competitors in this market, but SMSI’s approach provides a direct path to consumers, which will tend to be more effective than forcing people to find a solution for themselves. Only a small subset of smart American parents do that 😉

      Like

    1. Definitely ugly on the surface. Orders slipped and projects were delayed… but I need to read the transcript because the call was too dense to fully absorb in one sitting.

      What I said in yesterday’s video remains intact. This is a 50-50 bet where they have to get the big deals to reward investors for the downside risk (as will likely be evident tomorrow).

      Like

      1. Majority of comments surrounding what may happen in the future, but bottom line guidance is for a flat YoY result with 3 quarters to go for this fiscal year.

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        1. Yep. That’s long wait time for good numbers to return. Bookings are supposed to be much better than the headline numbers, but there is definitely going to be a wait-and-see aspect to this story for the next couple of quarters.

          We’ll see how the stock responds, but nothing has changed in my original thesis. This is a coin flip that on whether they get large production orders. There are positive indications that the customers are interested, but definitely not enough proof in the pudding yet.

          Like

          1. I hope they accomplish big things, but they do not seem to know what their customers are going to do, so it’s impossible for us to know.

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          2. CORRECT. That has also been my understanding from the beginning. That’s why anyone involved here has to understand that this is more of a coin flip than a growth story. If they win the flip and build a nice customer base, then it can become a growth story. Until then, it’s speculative.

            Like

          3. They were hiring sales people which seems to be an interesting twist and begs the question why now? And what has changed to facilitate the need? More opportunity?

            Like

          4. Simple… they see the opportunity. Do you leas and pushed out orders doesn’t mean that you don’t have a demand. It just means that things are happening a little slower than they might have hoped. The same thing happened to ATTU (and we all know how that turned out).

            That doesn’t mean that the same thing will happen here. I’m just saying that it’s normal (if not typical).

            Like

  3. When speaking to management — when asked when revenue mix between Commsuite and SafePath will be 50-50. Management responded saying they believe it is very soon (not years but quarters) — I think a good indication that your model is on target or close to. Hope this helps, cheers!

    Like

  4. Mark,

    Your comment on TPCS with a target of $3.00 looks like it pushed it to a new high for the year.
    Also, there looks like a big buyer is sitting right below the ask.
    I agree the prospects with the large Navy orders for submarines will add significant value to this
    under followed micro cap. Good luck with your advice!

    Like

  5. Hi Mark, thank you for everything you do, I truly learned a lot from you. When I looked at your SMSI Model, I don’t quite get how you got your number for Graphics and other for 2019 and 2020, the math didn’t add up?

    Like

      1. Mark. I know you are intending to be conservative on your model, and I certainly would praise and endorse that approach, but at the same time, I feel nearly 100% certain that you do not show SafePath revenue compared to CommSuite revenue growing quickly enough over the next 3 to 4 quarters. To help me figure this out and comment further, could you advise: How certain are you that the breakdown of CommSuite and Other Revenue numbers in your model are in the ballpark? Specifically I am talking June quarter. Thanks.

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          1. Ok, thanks. That is great info. I could be wrong, but I think, based on info from the conference, that Huffmeyer believes SafePath revenue will ramp up more quickly than you show in your model. Specifically I am talking from current levels to the point where it catches CommSuite revenues.

            Like

  6. Mark, being a tech guy, do you have any special insight into the growth of Silicon Carbide (SiC) transistors or MOSFETs? The Wolfspeed division of Cree is an example of a company that is producing these products. I’m entirely uninterested in Cree BTW, it is already a well known story stock and with 10 big analysts covering it. But I am interested in one of their suppliers. It is a tiny company that stands to benefit substantially as the industry grows. I’ll share it with you now if you might be able to help with the forecasting, otherwise I will wait until I have a more complete thesis put together before asking you to spend any time on it.

    Like

  7. Finally got our coverage!

    Roth Capital analyst Scott Searle started Smith Micro with a Buy rating and $4 price target. The analyst notes that over the past 18 months, Smith Micro has undergone a significant overhaul in cost structure, focus, and growth vectors. More specifically, the company has engineered a product turnaround in its visual voicemail business, while investing in location-based services, he points out, adding that he believes location represents a $1B-plus TAM in the U.S.

    Read more at:
    https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2797624

    Like

      1. They’re sandbagging. Leaves room to raise the target. Their Q3 rev estimate is impossibly conservative, lending credence to my point.

        SMSI’s going to easily beat the Q, enabling Roth to raise their estimates and target price.

        They could have waited a few weeks for the quarter to be announced, but didn’t. That’s VERY telling… 😉

        Liked by 1 person

  8. Your comment on MDXG, “you can’t make a business out of being your own customer”.
    Reminded me of a time when someone tried to get me into Amway.

    Like

  9. Mark, I have no idea if A buy initiation has been issued. I am only commenting on the volume since other people have said a buy was initiated by Roth. First noticed this on ST by several commenters.

    Like

  10. Yes, if a buy was initiated by Roth I would expect volume in the hundreds of thousands. So is this recommendation real or a rumor.

    Like

    1. It’s real 😂 it’s just not widely disseminated. I’ve seen the report (but can’t distribute it). The estimates are conservative, so SMSI should beat their Q3 numbers. Very bullish that ROTH initiated before the call. They have to feel confident to have done that.

      Like

      1. Via my Charles Schwab online access when I click on SMSI for latest news it has as the newest entry “Analyst Actions: Roth Capital Starts Smith Micro Software at Buy”, so it seems real according to the Schwab news-feed mechanisms.

        Like

        1. Yes… again, I’ve seen/read the report. It’s real.

          If anyone is wondering why the stock is only slowly creeping up, this is why. The news hasn’t been widely disseminated yet… and many of those who have heard about it don’t fully believe it yet. 😉

          As word (and belief) gets out, we see that the stock firming even though IWC is down and falling substantially today.

          On a day like this for IWC, SMSI would generally be down 3-4%, so this is actually a strong reaction for something that isn’t widely known yet. Tomorrow could be interesting.

          Like

  11. mark you get roth reports? how does someone do this? do you have to pay? do you also need a high net worth? or are the reports free and based on networking?

    Like

  12. NBEV up 67% CELH down ? They both make energy drinks right? You can put CBD in your cornflakes if you want? What am I missing?

    Like

    1. Welcome to the wild wild West. If you were investing in 1998 / 1999, this is familiar stuff. You have to be very careful, because many stocks will be 5 or 10 (or more) baggers on speculation and then down 95%+ in a couple of years.

      Coupled with the advent of social media, trading platforms, and millennial-oriented investing, this should become a very lucrative time to be a nimble investor.

      My intention is to catch all of the B.S. companies as shorts as they peak and start coming down. I am partial to writing call options on already expensive stocks. I have already made five figures on NBEV AND TLRY by writing calls at the right time and nimbly taking profits shortly thereafter.

      Easy money.

      Of course, being a long a stock that goes from 1 to 7 is “easier” money, but I don’t like being invested in something that isn’t worth what it’s selling for. That’s pure speculation/gambling (which I don’t do).

      Like

  13. Mark, do you think Chardan hasn’t initiated b/c they are leading the QuickLink IoT sale? Also, are you done writing articles on Smith Micro, and now exclusively doing video updates? Also, perhaps you should send a report around to some larger funds.

    Like

    1. Regarding each of your questions, I can’t say.

      I never know why a firm puts (or doesn’t put) out a report (or when)… and I don’t discuss when or whether I’m going to put up a report.

      Part of the reason is that I want people to focus on fundamentals, not silly catalysts like what somebody thinks or says about a stock.

      People’s opinions don’t make a company good… the company does.

      Liked by 1 person

  14. Hi Mark, I saw you changed your model for valuation. Looks like you bumped up revenue second half of next year. You may have mentioned that in one of your videos, but was that because of the sunsetting of Family Locator, heavier new subs from Sprint, new Tier 1 customer, etc? Also, since the models are pretty close to the same up until Q3 2019, feels like your original valuation still has merit until the company actually reports the higher numbers in Q3/Q4. Those are my thoughts anyway. What do you think?

    Like

    1. Recent comments by management indicate that SafePath is going to be as big as CommSuite soon. That was the main change.

      I also want to be a little conservative in the short term, because I make my models to be accurate… not for the company to beat them.

      In other words, with my personal (usually unpublished) model, the company beats half the time and misses half the time (because I’m trying to be 100% accurate).

      Liked by 1 person

    1. IDK. I wasn’t there, but the stock acted VERY well in a bad tape, so…..

      I doubt the story has changed at all since the last time. They are ramping the alternative healing channel which should have a great impact on the business in the coming quarters. I don’t know what this earnings report will bring, but I don’t really care (good or bad). The business model is exciting to me.

      Like

  15. RDCM conference call on Tuesday, is it possible that this is the long awaited contract, or is it more bad news? The market thinks it is more bad news, since one would think that signing the contract could be done by a press release, and not postponed until Tuesday… Thoughts?

    Like

      1. It seems similar to the ATM piggy bank deal HMNY did but structured better to not sink the price or scare retail. Either way though it is dilution 🤨

        Like

        1. Hi, on the advice of a good friend and public biotech CEO back in 2011, I avoid biotech almost without exception. I know what goes into winning there (expertise and luck). When it comes to biotech I don’t have the former and don’t like relying on the latter.

          Like

          1. what about a biotech which just signed a deal with Roche and gets $96 million up front and 5 billion in potential milestones and tiered sale royalties. and this biotech is trading at 250M. and the roche deal is only for a minority of Affimed’s pipeline. the company is AFMD. it’s a good one, but I have much better ones too. I have strong biotech connections. I know your a math guy, as we all should be, so I listed those deal terms for you.

            Like

          1. Yeah it makes sense to stick with what you know. And there are very few fundamentals to analyze in small cap biotech, it is a gamble (which I fully realize).

            Like

          2. Found an interesting article on Lincoln Park Capital – looks like I wasn’t too far off comparing it to HMNY’s ATM. The deal they inked says Lincoln can’t short sell for arbitrage but the devil is in the details.

            Always fun to learn something new.

            View story at Medium.com

            “Using the same scenario example, that same day AVXL stock fluctuates between $10 and $11 and LPC manages to sell the 50,000 shares in the open market at an average price of $10.50, at the end of the day they purchase 50,000 shares directly from Anavex at $10.00 the lowest price of the day, pocketing $0.50 per share, a $25,000 completely risk-free profit and delivering $500,000 of fresh cash extracted from the marketplace to Anavex bank account, basically, in this example, a 5% commission to transfer funds from retail investors to Anavex.”

            Like

  16. Hi Mark, would you take a moment and check out my recently launched website – mystockmap[dot]com ?

    Any thoughts you have on improvement would be really helpful!

    Also, I would really appreciate if you could answer a couple questions.

    Do you think I am making a mistake by having money managers, advisors, and institutional funds sign up via the same website, but at a higher rate? Under the subscribe link I write, “Institutional Funds and Money Managers or Advisors must E-Mail Admin@MyStockMap.com for Rates.” Is this a mistake? Another option would be to send such groups all my research via e-mail and keep them agnostic to my website.

    And then, to your knowledge, I have complete control over my own research, is that right? For example, if I want to occasionally post MyStockMap research publicly via SeekingAlpha, or provide my research to an advisor, manager, or fund who would recycle that research down to their base, is that all fair game?

    Is that what funds typically do with the research you send them? They recycle it down to their base?

    Thanks, Mark!

    Like

    1. Sorry, but my schedule is completely crazy. Having gotten back from Europe, I won’t be able to donate time to individual efforts anytime soon. As it stands, I focus on group volunteerism. I hope you can understand why (inundation of individual requests). I wish you good luck though. Cheers 👍🏼

      Like

  17. Mark, I noticed Roth downgraded one of your old favorites Glu Mobile and the volume is quite large. Which really leads me to find it quite odd that there initiation of SMSI produced nothing.

    Like

    1. You guys think too much 🙄

      A downgrade from the Roth is an uncommon event, which makes it much more significant than an initiation. In fact, I thought about shorting GLUU when I heard about the downgrade.

      Plus, what makes you think that SMSI didn’t go up before the Roth initiation in anticipation of the initiation? Wall Street firms don’t tell the world to buy a stock before they tell their customers 😉

      People need to stop focusing on what other people think (including Wall Street analysts) and focus on the research you gather. Can’t be a leader by being a follower.

      Liked by 1 person

  18. Seems like the market is rotating out of small cap stocks that are sensitive to interest rates. Even though SMSI has plenty of cash on hand and on the fringe of being GAAP positive, IWC has been hit fairly hard the past month which hurts the stock as it’s part of that index. Hopefully it stops soon and we don’t have to fret about it. Earnings will have to be stellar to keep this stock from falling below the 200 MDA.

    Like

    1. I agree about everything except the part earnings having to be stellar to keep the stock above the 200 DMA.

      However, I do expect earnings to beat expectations, so it will end up being a moot point.

      As for IWC (another indices), as I have taught repeatedly in the past, when you hate the market, short the market, not the stocks you love.

      So, I remain heavily long on a SMSI and others, but have mitigated the declines by being short Chinese stocks and the IWC 😊💥

      p.s. I’ve been watching individual stocks to see which ones seem to move the most in conjunction with the underlying index (to see which ones are moving because of the index, as opposed to its fundamentals). FWIW, Gaia has been particularly correlated. IDK what this quarter will bring, but I’m bullish. Management has been executing extremely well.

      Liked by 1 person

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