Bought The Market & $MRIN This PM

If you missed my last live broadcast, be sure to check it out here (I discussed MRIN in greater depth at the 28 minute mark)… and as always, be sure to read my disclosures/disclosures below. Cheers!

 

Just a quick update… at the end of today’s action, my trading bias became more bullish on a number of stocks and the market in general.

The second part of that is something relatively new.

I’ve been negative / cautious on the market since September. Selling, shorting, and hedging has enabled me to preserve profits and stockpile cash to take advantage if bargains started to appear in the marketplace.

Despite today’s drop, I’ve still had a great couple of weeks and a fantastic year. More importantly, I have a ton of cash and bargains have indeed started to appear in the marketplace :^)

Euphoria/Panic oscillators finally hit “Panic” on Friday. Simultaneously, we’re now hitting major support levels on the charts. As a result, I think we can start trading for a bounce vs. a further decline.

In a volatile market, it’s generally smart to take profits (on longs and shorts) when they come (and then rinse-and-repeat). That should continue, but my portfolio, charts, and cash position all imply that I should be biased toward buying.

Following those signs, I started buying this afternoon. Among mainstream names, I bought some AAPL and SPY.

Among my favorite names, I did some more work on MRIN and was alerted to an 8-K from April 17 that showed that management will get 1.5 years pay + bonus if they sell the company. This added credence to the hypothesis I presented in my recent article and YouTube video. Between this and today’s drop in stock price, I was a buyer this afternoon.

I get the sense that most people are playing the chart and MRIN’s low float. Don’t be those people. It’s cool to make extra $$$ trading the stock, but spend an hour to go through the story, so you know what you’re dealing with. That will enable you to trade and/or invest with the advantage of knowledge. With a volatile stock like this, that advantage can make a big difference.

Trust me. Doing my homework first (and immediately) is one of the single biggest reasons I’ve continued to make money while the markets implode. #research!

Happy Holidays & Best Wishes For A Prosperous 2019,

Mark G.

If you missed my last live broadcast, be sure to check it out here. Cheers!

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Disclosures / Disclaimers: I am long AAPL, MRIN, and SPY. However, this is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.

I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter.  Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.

The primary purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

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23 thoughts on “Bought The Market & $MRIN This PM

    1. Thanks Wedge. It’s well worth it! Watching so many of you up your game is a pleasure.

      Plus, many of you have become contributors to my research efforts, so what goes around is coming around. #winwin

      Merry Christmas & Cheers Brother 🙌🏼

      Liked by 1 person

  1. Great post, Mark! Was looking forward to your guidance in these testing times!

    I’m in a similar position to you right now.. tons of dry powder and have been covering a lot of my shorts today and friday. There are some unbelievable prices on some names.. I was just curious as to what are your indicators that you use to determine that the market is in a panic (I mean it’s pretty obvious, but my personal experience is a calm one, so I don’t relate with market participants right now).

    My personal instruments for determining panic/euphoria are deviations from the 50 day moving average on the S&P, VIX price and term structure, put/call ratio and a bit of technical chart analysis (support, resistance at specific junctures).

    I have put a lot of thought into weather or not I should jump in at the start of this week, but my analysis as of friday’s close was to just hold off a bit longer. And the market is down another 2.6% today.

    My only fear and real concern is a forced liquidation-type event. At what point do investors get margin calls? Is there enough dry powder on the sidelines to support a seizable bounce? I don’t want to catch a falling knife, but I’m also well aware the price action right now is highly abnormal.

    Anyway, I wish you a very warm and joyful Christmas, a Happy New Year and lots of rewards from your growing following! God Bless!

    Andrei

    Like

    1. I use similar measures + my long term SPY risk/reward chart + one from my financial advisor… but I primarily watch valuations relative to my assessment of the future of the economy.

      I don’t worry about forced liquidations, more downside, falling knives, etc. I focus on what I mentioned above and invest my cash at a measured pace. If I see a lot of longs, I buy them. If I see a lot of shorts, I short them. That gets me close enough. If I lose money, big deal. If I’m paying a good price, it’ll work out.

      I don’t worry about winning in the short term. That’s what allows me to win in the medium and long term. Price and patience. 💯

      Happy Holidays!

      Mark

      Liked by 1 person

  2. One more thing – this is my third year trading, learning and investing and for the first time I am outperforming the S&P by a significant margin. This brings me great joy and satisfaction and your teachings have been a cornerstone to developing my own research methods and trading models – a big thank you for that and keep doing what you are doing!

    Andrei

    Like

  3. Good Morning Mark & Merry Christmas
    I like you are a fundamental type trader love doing tons of DD & finding stocks early in the process. I wanted your opinion on Moneygram symbol MGI as it has sold off to historic lows & valued as if it’s going bankrupt despite generating lots of cash every year. Also of note is the fact they almost got bought out by an Alibaba Co. for $18 a share & had public Co. EEFT trying to buy them for $16 a share. I would love to know if I have another WTW moment when I was buying it at $4 ( my biggest single stock win ever) or a value trap going to zero. Thanks Dennis

    Like

  4. Merry Christmas Mark and thank you for all those posts.
    I find it interesting you are long SPY.
    I believe IWR is in a tougher position than SPY due to
    1) Bigger companies slowing down deals with smaller companies (IWR companies) as you mentioned in the video casts and
    2) Rising interest rates costing more for IWR companies who has debt (for operation, R&D, etc).

    I also believe the index funds are highly influenced by the market force, hence SPY and IWR should generally move in the same direction, if I’m not mistaken.
    My question is, can SPY and IWR move in the opposite direction?

    Like

  5. Interesting market move today. Glad I bought $SPY Monday… but short and medium term technical trend hasn’t reversed yet (nor have any of the fundamental risks been resolved in any way).

    Covering $TLRY and selling $APHA. Made over 10% on each side of that trade very quickly.

    Monitoring $MRIN to see when the trading action moves back into the bulls’ favor. My fundamental analysis hasn’t changed, so my bias is to have a core long position + trade it opportunistically (as is the case with all of my long positions).

    Net net, I’m REALLY loving this market. Volatility is a playground for fundamentally-focused investors. It’s been years since I’ve gotten to play in a field like this 😊

    Like

    1. Thanks 😎

      Would have preferred to have bought individual stocks, but I raised my $SMSI stake and had plenty of my favorites.

      $SPY was a decent placeholder. It bought me time & patience. Was rewarded with a $MRIN pullback, enabling me to buy cheaper. Textbook risk/reward management 😊

      Like

          1. It could work out for you starting on Wed. The selling pressure over the last few days of the year could be due to catching many people buying on the way up to $11 on extremely heavy volume. Those people could be taking their EOY tax losses. Should be interesting to see what happens with this one.

            Like

          2. I’m in no rush. I’ve done the math and the research. If I get a $20 stock at $10, that’s a future double. If it drops to $5, now I can buy more, but it’s a future 4-bagger. Etc etc. etc.

            That’s the advantage of having confidence in what something is worth. No stops. No nervousness. Just profits or opportunities to buy more. Playing Holdem with pocket kings 😎

            Appreciate your trading commentary brother. Never hurts to have that side of the equation covered too. 👍🏼

            Like

  6. From Quick on Yahoo Finance,

    “For what its worth:
    Mevion is excited to announce that we’ve just signed a contract for a 3rd MEVION S250i Proton Therapy System with HYPERSCAN Pencil Beam Scanning in the Midwestern United States! That makes Mevion proton solutions the system of choice in 75% of announced contracts in 2018.
    Details to follow in the New Year.
    GLTA

    Happy New Year!!!”

    Like

  7. Quote from TPCS 10K-June 29, 2018

    “Precision Industrial

    We serve a number of different customers in our precision industrial group. Included in this group is a key customer who installs proprietary proton beam
    radiotherapy systems. We manufacture components for these large scale medical systems for this customer.”

    Happy New Year!

    Like

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