Smith Micro (SMSI) Explodes! #PatiencePays

As always, be sure to read my disclosures / disclaimers below!

 

It’s been a long time since I’ve actually written a post. For better or worse, YouTube has proven much more time effective for sharing my picks, research, and lessons (which is enabling me to focus on finding new winners).

For those of you who prefer my written work, I apologize. As a consolation, I’d like to introduce Aaron Warwick. Aaron is bright investor who has volunteered to help timestamp and summarize my work on YouTube. If you find his efforts useful, please provide your feedback and we’ll keep it going.

FYI, here are his timestamp notations for my most recent video:

0:00 Disclosures/Disclaimers/Intro; stressed desire for people to reshare (vs liking) his links to broadcasts 4:36 moves in 1% portfolio and some investing lessons 29:20 investing processes and methodology 49:00 $SMSI 49:20 today’s announcement, its significance, and implications 51:57 $S and SafePath current run rate and possibilities for revenue 53:35 Evolution of an ecosystem benefiting Smith 54:15 ISM acquisition and related lessons 1:01:05 Smith 10K from yesterday, past cyclical performance, and related stock prices 1:05:50 conversation on his and $SMSI’s confidence in signing new T1 1:10:00 $SMSI operating model 1:12:10 conversation on identification of possible T1 carrier 1:16:20 $OSSIF (new pick) Intro and synopsis and importance of building an operating model; stressed not to immediately buy this stock 1:22:40 $NBEV emphasis on whether you can trust management to execute on promises; raised revenue but lowered EBITDA 1:28:02 $GAIA as a content creator 1:29:28 $TPCS and their immunity from recession and the bipartisan support for military spending; adding aircraft to subs 1:33:03 Q&A begins with Q on $SMSI Gryphon announcement & equity raises 1:35:04 Q: how can we get an earlier “heads up” on broadcasts 1:35:22 policy on stock requests on stocks he’s not already covering 1:36:12 Q on timing when to buy a stock 1:38:08 Q onbooks he recommends on investing 1:39:12 Q on effect of $S $TMUS merger on $SMSI 1:42:22 Q on details of determining fully diluted EPS on $SMSI with respect to warrants.

 

OK, let’s jump into today’s topic…

At the time of my last post, the 1% Portfolio was under-performing the market. As I’ve noted before, my picks don’t necessarily go up (or down) with the market. These are small emerging companies that are liable to break out at any time (or not at all). That volatility is the price of seeking excessive returns.

Since then, our patience has paid off. My 2018/2019 picks are now up 17.2% (65.3% annualized) versus -1.9% (-5.8% annualized) for the Russell 2000. Those who have chosen to use the Russell 2000 as a hedge against my picks have been rewarded with profits on our longs, shorts, and hedges!

The most notable winner has been my largest position. As most of you know, that’s Smith Micro (SMSI). Smith has delivered a 1-year return in excess of 70% (in stark contrast to the Russell 2000, which has gone nowhere).

More importantly, the business (and consequently, the stock) appears to be finally breaking north into a new secular bull trend.

The is reason is simple — execution. The company is now firing on all cylinders, having just delivered its second straight blowout quarter. The company also just completed an accretive acquisition and released a demo of their latest offering (if you having seen it, take 5 minutes to check it out!).

 

Other than that, be sure to check out my YouTube channel (you can SUBSCRIBE free to receive alerts regarding my upcoming LIVE/recorded broadcasts) and real-time contributions on StockTwits.

Cheers!

 

More Research:

• My YouTube Channel
• Smith Micro’s Connected Life Demo!
• Lose 33% In 9 Months To Make 1,000% In 15?
• Operating Models: The Secret To BIG winners!
• Gaia & An Invaluable Investing Lesson
• The Quick Investor’s Guide To SMSI
• MoviePass Projected To Burn $600M In 2018
• Buying SMSI — Today Is The Day I’ve Been Waiting For!
• Mark Gomes Research

 

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Disclosures / Disclaimers: I am long SMSI. However, this is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.

I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter.  Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.

The primary purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.