LIVE Marathon (Aftermath)

Stock Research 2 Minutes
Hey,
It was an action-packed day of LIVE broadcasting — over 2 hours of content broken into four focused videos.
This was a new format. It seemed to work, but could use some tweaks.
You can catch a replay of today’s action here — https://tinyurl.com/MoneyMarkYouTube

 

Let me know what you thought of it.
Cheers!
p.s. here are the links to the Google Spreadsheets from today’s videos:

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Disclosures / Disclaimers: I am long SMSI. This is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.

I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter.  Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.

The primary purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

Published by Mark Gomes

Mark Gomes is an Information Technology expert with over 20 years of experience. During his career, Gomes led the investment research efforts at numerous IT consulting organizations, including International Data Corporation (1994-1998), and AMR Research (1998-2004), which was later acquired Gartner Group. In 2004, Mr. Gomes founded Pipeline Data, LLC where he provided investment consulting to many of America's most well-respected mutual fund and hedge fund managers. In 2008, Mr. Gomes semi-retired and began donating his research to Seeking Alpha. He quickly built a reputation for accurately identifying inflection points and M&A candidates. Outside of the investment world, Gomes is a Masters Track & Field World Champion and multi-time world record holder. In 2012, he published "Faster Than Forty", which detailed his diet, lifestyle, and training techniques. Today, he serves as a volunteer track coach to children and adults in the Miami Beach community.

Published

48 thoughts on “LIVE Marathon (Aftermath)”

  1. Thx once again for your wisdom and taking the time to share. For me, your lessons today seamed more indepth. You are a great teacher!

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  2. I like the format better, I only care for SMSI at this point so that was a great informative video Mark. Thank you for your time and sharing your thoughts. Very bright future for this company esp sine they are smack in the middle of the IoT turn and I like that fact that Bill wants the company to be a growth company again. Thanks again and God bless you

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  3. Mark, You were amazing today! You stayed on the subject matter throughout the whole morning marathon without missing a beat and the SMSI earnings lesson was priceless. My only recommendation is if you can somehow keep the feed from one program to the next continuous as I had to click on a link for each program. God Bless all you do for us.

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    1. Good thought… I’ll see what I can do to make that happen. I would DEFINITELY prefer it your way. Maybe just do it like CNBC and stick to a time-slot schedule.

      Would be great to go non-stop but have the replay videos separated.

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  4. I think the videos have been going well but, generally speaking, there isn’t much advance notice on when you’ll be broadcasting. I know you are on vacation and can’t commit to a set schedule but I think that gauging interest in the videos by the number of live viewers is an imperfect method.

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  5. I received an email from MoviePass today about recent interruptions in service and further changes to the business model. You probably received it too if your still a customer. If you aren’t and would like me to forward you the email let me know where to send it.

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  6. Agree I loved the format. I’ve written off HMNY and at this point am only interested in SMSI. I loved your model on that, and I’m glad you didn’t inflate your revenue projections around IoT. I’m not totally sold on that. I think demand will depend on price. Middle America is way more likely to pay to track their kids than they will be to pay to track their things. If it happens, that’s all just icing on top of the cake. 🙂

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      1. Almost facetiously let me suggest the Mitch and Ted use the $100mm that they made so far and take the co. private. How ironic would that be??

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  7. Mark, I’ve been unable to get to a computer for the last few days and just looked over your most recent info. looking at the SMSI spreadsheet for the next 3 qtrs (Ending 12/31/18) is that expected earnings of a TOTAL of .16 ( .17 for the full year) and .60 for total y/e 2019? If I’m reading that correctly and SMSI is currently ~$2.57, that’s a current PE of ~15? Wasn’t the expected earnings figure for ye 2018 higher when we/you began the primary discussion of SMSI? Not being critical just trying to remember correctly. Thanks as usual sir, be well

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    1. My EPS estimates are now higher than they’ve been for the past several months. My “breakaway profit” forecast has always been for 2019.

      They’re RIGHT ON SCHEDULE with achieving a profit, but now appear in position to ramp EPS faster thanks to CFO Tim’s actions.

      If the sunset happens anytime soon, it all goes to another level. I’ll have to revise everything upward.

      Hope that clarifies.

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  9. Mark, I like the format a lot! It was the first time for me joining in the live chat, and I would definitely do it again in the future. If you could provide a little more advance notice about when you go live (or establish a set day in the week and time) I think that would push up your viewership numbers a lot. I oftentimes just get the e-mail and miss the live broadcast because the notice is so short. Anyway, good content, great answers, lots of useful info! I like this community and hope it will grow! Cheers!

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  10. Mark- Thank you for making the time and taking the effort to so generously share your hard-earned knowledge and
    experience with the online community that has formed around you. It is a noble effort which I especially
    appreciate- in contrast to the antagonistic political and social dramas of our current circumstance. It is too
    easy and so dangerous to succumb to cynicism. Thank you for your shinning personal example.

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  11. To those who are asking about being notified in a timely way for Mark’s video (or article) announcements, here’s one option for you. Simply have the WordPress notification e-mail forward to yourself as a text message. I’m a Verizon customer and all I do is just have the e-mail forward to XYZ@vtext.com (where XYZ is my phone number).

    This gets through to me in seconds and eliminates the need to check email repeatedly.

    I’m sure other carriers offer the same offering as vtext. It’s 100% free.

    Hope this helps!

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  12. Hi MarkIs the link  (https://tinyurl.com/MoneyMarkYouTube) to the podcast session still live?It will not open for meJust wondering if I can still listen to your podcastRegardsAlan

    WordPress.com | Mark Gomes posted: “Hey,It was an action-packed day of LIVE broadcasting — over 2 hours of content broken into four focused videos.This was a new format. It seemed to work, but could use some tweaks.You can catch a replay of today’s action here — https://tinyurl.com/” | |

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    1. Hi Alan… that’s a permanent link to my YouTube Channel. It should ALWAYS bring you to there. Then, you just have to scroll down to whichever video you want to watch.

      Does that answer your question?

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  14. Call me cynical but when Ted split the shares he knew the business model failed. The new model is to make money issuing shares every day while Hudson shorts the stock. (94 million shares traded today when post split they had only 1.7 million.) I haven’t seen anything this shady in 25 years of following markets daily.

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  15. Mark, could not watch the video on SMSI until this morning. Great job. Thanks
    I do have one question and maybe you can answer now as last week you were asked about that analyst (I think from Canacord) putting a buy on the stock where you thought would be a nice number but they have not. Do you know why he did not recommend.
    Thanks
    Eric

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    2. I believe it was Chardan Capital who was involved with the last capital raise. They were the institution that we surmised would initiate a buy target on SMSI. Based upon the recent news and progress within the company I believe the stock is worth a lot more than it’s current share price. The last reported short interest in SMSI showed a decrease of almost 273K shares on July 13th. This is the first decrease in short interest since end of February. Since Chardan was involved with the last capital raise, I have a sneaky suspicion they are waiting for their clients to cover their shorts before formally announcing a price target. In fact, since the warrants are due in October, they could be waiting to initiate a buy just before that event which will allow their clients to sell at much higher prices AND after they’ve covered their shorts. Just a wild guess but that’s what I’ve come up with. Either way, it’s mice nuts in the long term analysis because SMSI signs a tier one carrier the stock price has to go double digits.

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      2. I like this comment. Making suppositions is fine and maybe even fun, but it’s important put those things into context with the big picture. That’s what this comment does.

        Specifically, whatever Chardan is doing has no bearing on the value of the company and is therefore meaningless information (except to traders, who don’t have the same $$$ potential as investors).

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      3. Quick question. Where did you find that “the warrants are due in October”? I’m trying to figure this out. I see in the 10-Q that the expected term left on the warrants is over 5 years. Where do you come up with them being due in October? I am new to the issue of warrants, so I am genuinely asking this question, not trying to make a point. 🙂 Any help you can provide is appreciated.

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        2. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/948708/000156459018010989/smsi-ex103_7.htm
          Maybe Mark could verify if I”m correct that the warrants may be executed in October? This is where I received my information.
          b)Exercise Price. The exercise price per share of the Common Stock under this Warrant shall be $2.11, subject to adjustment hereunder (the “Exercise Price”).

          c)Cashless Exercise. If at any time after the six-month anniversary of the Closing Date, there is no effective registration statement registering, or no current prospectus available for, the resale of the Warrant Shares by the Holder, then this Warrant may also be exercised, in whole or in part, at such time by means of a “cashless exercise” in which the Holder shall be entitled to receive a number of Warrant Shares equal to the quotient obtained by dividing [(A-B) (X)] by (A), where:

          (A) = as applicable: (i) the VWAP on the Trading Day immediately preceding the date of the applicable Notice of Exercise if such Notice of Exercise is (1) both executed and delivered pursuant to Section 2(a) hereof on a day that is not a Trading Day or (2) both executed and delivered pursuant to Section 2(a) hereof on a Trading Day prior to the opening of “regular trading hours” (as defined in Rule 600(b)(64) of Regulation NMS promulgated under the federal securities laws) on such Trading Day, (ii) at the option of the Holder, either (y) the VWAP on the Trading Day immediately preceding the date of the applicable Notice of Exercise or (z) the Bid Price of the Common Stock on the principal Trading Market as reported by Bloomberg L.P. as of the time of the Holder’s execution of the applicable Notice of Exercise if such Notice of Exercise is executed during “regular trading hours” on a Trading Day and is delivered within two (2) hours thereafter (including until two (2) hours after the close of “regular trading hours” on a Trading Day) pursuant to Section 2(a) hereof or (iii) the VWAP on the date of the applicable Notice of Exercise

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          1. Some of them can be exercised in the first week of September:
            https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/948708/000156459018008437/smsi-424b3.htm#Plan_of_distribution
            On March 6, 2018, the Company completed a private placement, wherein a total of 2,857,144 shares of the Company’s common stock was issued at a purchase price of $1.75 per share (the “March private placement”), with each investor also receiving a warrant to purchase up to a number of shares of common stock equal to the number of shares of common stock purchased by such investor in the Offering at an exercise price of $2.17 per share (the “March warrants”), for a total purchase price of $5,000,000. The March warrants become exercisable in the first week of September of 2018, and have a term of five years.

            I can’t believe anyone with warrants would sell at these low prices for two big reasons: 1)they’ve be shooting themselves in the foot as the stock would crater and they would receive a very poor return and 2)they are far better off waiting for the stock to appreciate once it’s discovered by other institutions which will create more favorable liquidity.

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          2. Thank you. I actually found that info later. It looks like the March offering warrants are executable this week; the May offering ones the first week of November. Your theory about them shorting the stock until that time, and waiting to initiate coverage, is interesting. I’m anxious to see what happens after the October ER. Note that someone/some people have purchased 4,795 call options for January 2019 at $5 strike. Someone/some people expecting a huge move or are hedging a massive short position.

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          3. Here is a link to the latest total number of shares short for SMSI from Nasdaq. They report it every 2 to 3 weeks so we are due to have a new update soon. As you can see, the shorts have been steadily covering since the highs in June. Will this trend continue? I guess we will find out soon. Perhaps the upcoming investor conference will shed some more light on the progress going on at SMSI. Could be another catalyst for buying shares and driving the price closer towards $3. I’m no expert on how big money investors conduct arbitrage positions but from what I hear they are willing to pay extra interest each month to borrow shares to short. None of this makes sense to me at all. All I know is I like the risk/reward with SMSI when you consider the management team and new CFO is laser focused on keeping costs down and maximizing profits. This is a new SMSI attitude and I think some of the old timers like Smith are ready to sell the company within the next few years.
            https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/smsi/short-interest

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    1. I hear you. There’s nothing wrong with wanting the stock to go up.. I just like to use this forum to condition investors to exercise patience when it comes to these things.

      The longer it takes to go up, the more information we get about the story and business. Imagine if something happens that makes us think the company worth twice as much as what we thought before… but the stock doesn’t move on the news. That would be great, right?

      We would get to buy a lot more at a much bigger discount what we think it’s worth.

      So I have no rush. The stock will go where deserves what it feels like going there. In the meantime we have the advantage of being able to buy at a discount (which gives us less risk) with the benefit of more and more information. 🤔😃🙌🏼

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  18. TMobile is doing tv ad’s for safe mode. Does this mean safe mode is successful ? Can’t find reliable download data. Will Sprint go to tv with safe and found. Don’t see many Sprint tv ad’s for anything .
    In 2003 when Verizon went to tv ad’s for wireless mobile connection Smith went thru the roof. Let’ hope Sprint is planning to increase it’s marketing budget.

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    1. Sprint is doing their thing. Trust a smart business to do smart business. We did the research so go back and read it if you need to be reminded that this product is hitting for them. They’re not blind. They see it too and they will support it accordingly. 💯👍🏼

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  20. I know I said I didn’t trust them anymore, but I ended up getting 3 shares @ 0.933 lol. I figured, what the heck, I have 0.30 in the account just sitting there… why not. Lol! If I lose it all, no biggie, if I gain a lot, that’s wonderful.

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