The Quick Investor’s Guide To SMSI

Opening Disclosure — Long-time readers should note some significant changes in how I communicate in the public domain. The primary purpose of this forum is now to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

Accordingly, this document should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation of the companies or securities discussed herein. I am not an investment advisor and this is not an investment thesis. It is merely one part of the story, which I present for debate in hopes of determining all risks and upside potential. The disclosure at the end of this piece is critical to understanding the content and context of this document. Further, I frequently trade my positions and may buy, sell, or short the securities mentioned herein at any time, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

 

Let’s Jump Right In

Since launching this blog, I’ve published 24 reports on Smith Micro (SMSI).

That’s a lot of writing! It’s also a lot of reading. However, that’s no excuse for being lazy about it. Becoming rich (or richer) takes hard work and sacrifice. In this case, all you need to do is read about the work I’ve already done (about 500 hours worth, compressed into about one hour of reading).

That being said, there’s nothing wrong with making things a little easier for everyone.

So, for this 25th article, I’m going to sum it all up for you and provide a comprehensive list (see below) of my past articles for easy access.

 

Everything You Need To Know About SMSI

For starters, you will have to read one article — Smith Micro: Riding A New Trend & Making Its Latest Comeback is my original write-up and still does a great job of laying out the story.

 

SMSI Products

Here are SMSI’s key product lines:
SafePath also known as Sprint’s Safe & Found product. This is the most exciting part of the SMSI story. Smith Micro: Riding A New Trend & Making Its Latest Comeback will get you up to speed on this. You can also see the impact this product can have on SMSI’s fortunes (and a lot more) via my Smith Micro model.
QuickLink IoT provides device configuration, device provisioning, fault monitoring, and diagnostics management, all carrier-certified and compliant with DM standards and over-the-air firmware and application updates. IoT is hot and SMSI is a recognized leader. However, it’s still a nascent space. I see the company selling this unit to monetize their R&D investment (and improve their profitability picture).
The CommSuite Visual Voicemail platform is a premium services solution that allows mobile operators to deliver and monetize advanced voice, video and messaging applications. The platform is designed to help operators generate new revenue streams and revitalize legacy messaging systems (use-cases include things like voicemail-to-text). The product has just been revamped and management expects Commsuite revenues to start rising again. 
NetWise is a policy-on-device platform that optimizes wireless Quality of Experience (QoE), connection and network traffic management, Wi-Fi discovery and authentication, and credential provisioning. I see this as another part of the business that will be shopped for sale.
The Graphics unit is an e-commerce site focused on software for artists and animators.

 

 

SafePath Is Already Doing Business With Major Global Carriers

Anyone involved with SMSI has been talking about Sprint. However, when Smith acquired iMobileMagic, it had already won deals with O2 in the UK (owned by Telefonica, which has 25 million subscribers), MEO (Portugal Telecom, with over 6 million customers), and one of T‑Mobile’s territories in Europe (owned by Deutsche Telekom, the majority shareholder of T-Mobile).

The company also had two Asian carriers in deployment, which were later revealed to be Digi in Malaysia (which has 12 million mobile subscribers) and AIS (with 40 million subscribers) in Thailand.

In fact, some of these carriers already have websites up and running with the product. However, SMSI has decided to be laser-focused on Sprint. By doing so, they can perfect the onboarding process and turn profitable before investing resources into newer, smaller, or less-developed accounts.

Make no mistake though… some of these carriers are significantly larger opportunities than Sprint is. With Sprint now doing great and ramping its PR activities, the time is fast-arriving for SMSI to ramp up its other relationships around the world.

 

So, How Much Can They (And I) Make On This?

The quickest answer to this can be seen by visiting my Smith Micro model and reading  Are SMSI’s Unlocked / Hidden Assets Worth Over $20 Per Share?

As I’ve been saying, momentum is finally building.

If you feel like doing more homework, be sure to check out my other reports…

…and stay tuned. Cheers!

 

All SMSI articles (in chronological order, from first to most recent):

1 Smith Micro: Riding A New Trend & Making Its Latest Comeback
2 Buying SMSI — Today Is Why I Haven’t Been Talking About Them Lately
3 SMSI’s Safe & Found App: 100,000 Downloads & Counting
4 Major Update on SMSI
5 Videocast! AEHR 10-Q, MoviePass Update, & BIG News On SMSI !
6 Sprint FINALLY Ramping Up SMSI’s Product!!
7 The Fates Of Smith Micro (SMSI), Sprint, T-Mobile, & Charter Are Intertwined
8 Are SMSI’s Unlocked / Hidden Assets Worth Over $20 Per Share?
9 Smith Micro (SMSI) Trading Analysis: Supply/Demand In Focus
10 SMSI’s Latest App Launches Sprint Relationship To A New Level (4.5 Stars)
11 Sprint & T-Mobile Agree to Merge! Implications for Smith Micro (SMSI)
12 Smith Micro Raises $7 Million (At A Premium) To Accelerate Its Momentum
13 SMSI: Downloads Spike! Family Locator “could stop working at any time”
14 Stock Offerings: Bullish Or Bearish?
15 SMSI’s Q1: Sprint Ramp Confirmed; T-Mobile Discussed!
16 Why Is That Institution Selling My Favorite Stock?
17 Lose 33% In 9 Months To Make 1,000% In 15?
18 SMSI: Show Me The Money
19 SMSI: Special Shareholder Report (Are The Big Sellers Gone)?
20 SMSI 10-Q Released — Strategies For Trading The Stock
21 New Version Of SMSI’s Safe & Found Released; Additional Catalysts On Tap
22 What’s Making The Stock Move?
23 Smith Micro (SMSI): Knocking Down The Dominoes!
24 T-Mobile / Sprint: Strategic Direction Is Bullish For Carrier-App Developers

 

More Research:

 

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Disclosures / Disclaimers: I am long SMSI. However, this is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.

I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.

I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter.  Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.

The primary purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.

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16 thoughts on “The Quick Investor’s Guide To SMSI

  1. Being extremely lazy, and first to admit it, can you say exactly when this stock will pass $5 on it’s way to $10, all this reading and waiting is wearing me out.

    Actually, thanks again for all the time and effort you do put into your articles and insights, we (well I) do appreciate it immensely

    Like

    1. Greg, let’s say that it is possible that by the end of June, any Family Locator clients that want to continue with Sprint will have moved to Safe & Found. As Mark has shown us, this could generate an additional $3m+ in revenues per quarter. Now, the recent quarters have seen revenue of between $5.5m-$6m, so what do you think happens to the stock if, when they report Q2 in late July, they say 300k have moved over (or 250k or 350k) before the quarter ended. That then implies Q3 and Q4 2018 revenues will be $8.5m-9.0m/q as compared to $5.5m and 2019 revenues will be ~$35m vs $30m in 2018 and $23m in 2017. The market SHOULD start pricing that in the minute that information becomes available. Does that answer your question?

      Keith

      Like

  2. Hey Mark,

    I found this in the Q&A on Sprint’s website. I think it has been touched on before, it seems a bit bizarre to me that this is correct, kind of defeats the purpose.

    Can a “child” phone or tablet sign out of Safe & Found?
    Yes, but the parent’s password is required. All devices can uninstall the app and turn off location services without a password.

    Like

    1. Details… 🙄 Expect to read about minor bugs and shortcomings for months to come. The product has been constantly evolving.

      Pluses and minuses to every company / story. The key is weighing them properly. This one weighs about an ounce. 😑

      Like

  3. I hear you. I figured it was a bug that would be worked out, so I was surprised to see it as a Q&A on Sprint’s website.

    Like

  4. Retry of a deleted comment: End of May new shares gets registered and the recovery on positives is missing in action so far. One would only hope that shorts and certain investors are not related, hedging their position with Warrants.
    Regardless, if they make the turnaround into cash flow positives happen in 3Q – 4Q, their latest funding restriction may be considered safe. Otherwise anti-dilution will go into effect.

    The new product itself looks good so far, but they still need to prove profitability.

    Like

    1. Great comment. The recovery on positives has definitely been stifled by hedging activity (Plus, who knows about the stock? I’m the only person writing about it).

      I think the good news in that will be seen when the shares are registered, because the advance shorting activity should dampen any negative effects of the registration. Unlike the last registration, this one is well telegraphed and the agreement had no provision restricting the investors from shorting activity.

      Like

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