As always, be sure to read my disclosures / disclaimers below. Cheers!
Those who follow Hedgeye, know that the U.S. economy is expected to be in “Quad 3” for most of 2019. In plain English, that means SLOWING GDP growth and ACCELERATING inflation. That’s an improvement over what we saw in Q4 (when GDP and inflation were both decelerating), but makes for a treacherous investing environment.
For advocates of professional valuation analysis, that’s GREAT news.
For the first time in recent memory, stocks are NOT all going up in unison. Good longs are going up and good shorts are going down… just the way it should always be (and always was until 2010).
My 1% Portfolio has been on absolute fire for the past 18-months… and it’s not because the market is up. In fact, among my last 22 picks, 12 have been SHORTS! Among those, 10 have been profitable.
Of the 10 remaining positions (longs), 8 have been profitable… and one of those (Electrameccannica – SOLO) has served as a hedge against my short position in Arcimoto (FUV), which is up 20% vs. the 12% loss in SOLO (in other words, the combined position is working as planned).
Overall, the 22 picks have averaged a 31% profit with an average holding period of 145 days (giving us an annualized return of 97.3%). Basically, my selections are back to performing the way they did before I briefly (and stupidly) came out of retirement.
It’s no coincidence that this hot streak started a couple months after my SEC investigation concluded. Distractions and stress are no good for stock picking. When you don’t have a worry in the world, it’s much easier to focus on good professional-level analysis. It’s also easier to kick back and not freak out about the occasional negative data point — something that happens to every stock.
Food for thought. #ProfessionalResearch #FundamentalResearch #MindOverEmotion
It’s been a few weeks since I’ve gone live… and a LOT has happened since then. I’ve put a lot of money to work in new long and short positions, which is exactly how I want to be situated with stocks revisiting record levels, despite an economy that is destine to slow down in the coming months (due to the fading effects of last year’s tax tailwind).
So, let’s talk about all of that!
I’ll be going LIVE on YouTube tomorrow (Thursday) at 12:30PM ET to discuss all of our old favorites, as well as my new ones.
As usual, we need enough people (at least 40) to make it worthwhile. I do my part to gather and share this info. The only thing I ask, if you appreciate my work, is to spread the word!
CATCH THE LIVE ACTION HERE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOUvysuLxHw
If you miss the live broadcast, be sure to check it out later. Cheers!
Still Negative on NBEV
On February 5, I said…
1. I have nothing personal against NBEV. I have respect for management’s experience. Regardless of their track record at New Age Beverages, I don’t claim that I could do a better job of running NBEV or any other beverage company. I’m simply a business/equity analyst… and that’s where my experience is.
2. I have reached out to Wall Street veterans for their input on NBEV, its financials, and its valuation. However, I am not teamed up with anyone to attack this stock. Nor do I get paid for any of my research or articles. My background is well known and documented.
3. I have no interest in engaging in a holy war against the company or its stock. As has been the case with my past shorts (i.e. Bitcoin. Overstock, and Helios/MoviePass), my professional training and research simply leads me to conclude that NBEV is overvalued.
If you disagree, I respect that. Time will be the judge. It always is.
My regular readers know that I’ve been very negative on NBEV’s valuation. This is similar to my prior short calls on cryptocurrencies and Helios & Matheson / MoviePass (HMNY). Investors are in love with the story (I understand why!), but are missing/ignoring some critical weakness in the underlying asset.
As a student of valuation, I’ve been short NBEV, along with its call options. On my short, I’ve made a 30% profit. Below, you can see how writing (shorting) the call options has played out…
That’s a LOT of profit!
It just further proves Warren Buffett’s lesson that stocks are a voting station in the short-term and a weighing station in the long term. In other words, stocks rise/fall based on supply/demand for the shares in the short term, but ultimately move toward their true and fair valuation over time.
BTW, the options performance is one more reason to visit Google and learn more about options and option strategies.
FYI, NBEV has initiated an ATM offering of $100 million worth of stock (Google it if you don’t know what it means). In short, it could have seriously negative consequences for the shares, which are currently teetering at a critical support line (sitting at $5.17). If it breaks, it could be a quick ride to $4.20 (no pun intended).
In the meantime, Feel free to ask me questions on this topic tomorrow at 12:30PM by clicking the link… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOUvysuLxHw
If you miss the live broadcast, be sure to check it out later. Cheers!
- My YouTube Channel
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- Mark Gomes Research
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Disclosures / Disclaimers: This is not a solicitation to buy, sell, or otherwise transact any stock or its derivatives. Nor should it be construed as an endorsement of any particular investment or opinion of the stock’s current or future price. To be clear, I do not encourage or recommend for anyone to follow my lead on this or any other stocks, since I may enter, exit, or reverse a position at any time without notice, regardless of the facts or perceived implications of this article.
I am not a financial advisor. Nor am I providing any recommendations, price targets, or opinions about valuation regarding the companies discussed herein. Any disclosures regarding my holdings are true as of the time this article is written, but subject change without notice. I frequently trade my positions, often on an intraday basis. Thus, it is possible that I might be buying and/or selling the securities mentioned herein and/or its derivative at any time, regardless of (and possibly contrary to) the content of this article.
I undertake no responsibility to update my disclosures and they may therefore be inaccurate thereafter. Likewise, any opinions are as of the date of publication, and are subject to change without notice and may not be updated. I believe that the sources of information I use are accurate but there can be no assurance that they are. All investments carry the risk of loss and the securities mentioned herein may entail a high level of risk. Investors considering an investment should perform their own research and consult with a qualified investment professional.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am receiving no compensation for it, nor do I have a business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. The information in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action.
The primary purpose of this blog/forum is to attract new contacts with professional industry expertise to share research and receive feedback (confirmation / refutation) regarding my investment theses.